Market Roundup
•Spanish Mar HICP (MoM) 1.3%,1.2% forecast, 0.4% previous
•Spanish Mar CPI (MoM) 0.8% 0.6% forecast,0.4% previous
•Spanish Mar HICP (YoY) 3.2% ,3.3% forecast, 2.9% previous
•Spanish Mar CPI (YoY)3.2%,3.1% forecast,2.8% previous
•Swiss Mar ZEW Expectations 11.5, 10.2 previous
•Spanish Jan Current account 5.13B,1.07B previous
•EU Mar Business and Consumer Survey 96.3,96.3 forecast,95.4 previous
•EU Mar Business Climate -0.30,-0.42 previous
•EU Mar Consumer -14.9,-14.9 forecast, -15.5 previous
•EU Mar Industrial Sentiment -8.8,-9.0 forecast,-9.5 previous
•EU Mar Services Sentiment 6.3,7.8 forecast,6.0 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•14:00 Swiss SNB Quarterly Bulletin
•14:30 US Gasoline Production -0.263M previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -0.018M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Inventories -1.650M forecast,3.310M previous
•14:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW)0.127M previous
•14:30 US Heating Oil Stockpiles 0.486M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW) 1.0% previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -0.700M forecast,-1.952M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production 0.128M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•17:40 Swiss SNB Vice Chairman Schlegel Speaks
•22:00 US Fed Waller Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro edged lower on Wednesday as the greenback gained momentum following strong U.S. economic data.The U.S. dollar, which measures the strength of the greenback against six major currencies, appreciated 0.1% to 104.360 on the back of stronger-than-expected orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods and concerns that hot inflation numbers could cause a rethink in the Federal Reserve's rate-cut outlook. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE), and public comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell are due on Friday. The index is expected to have risen 0.4% in the last month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0876(20SMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0906 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0800(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0763 (50%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower on Wednesday as dollar gained after durable goods orders rebounded in February, pointing to a resilient U.S. economy. Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods increased more than expected last month and business spending on equipment showed tentative signs of recovery, boosting the economy's prospects in the first quarter. The Commerce Department report suggested manufacturing could be regaining its footing after struggling in the wake of the Fed's aggressive tightening of monetary policy to tame inflation.The market now expects the Fed to cut about 78 basis points by December, more than early last week, but about half what fed funds futures showed earlier this year after Fed policymakers pushed back on the notion of imminent rate cuts.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2664(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2741(March 19th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2603 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2563(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Wednesday as greenback gained momentum after strong economic data. Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods increased more than expected in February, while business spending on equipment showed tentative signs of recovery as the economy's growth prospects in the first quarter remained upbeat. The market's main focus this week is on U.S. core inflation figures due on Good Friday, though already a bigger-than-expected jump in U.S. durable goods orders on Tuesday boosted the dollar somewhat . Traders are pricing in a 70% probability that the Fed will begin cutting rates in June, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, opens new tab. The Swiss franc fell to its lowest since early November on Wednesday at 0.9066 to the dollar, down around 0.3%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9066(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9118(Nov 2nd 2023 high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8921(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar initially gained against yen on Wednesday but gave up ground as yen drew intervention from the Bank of the Japan. Japanese authorities stepped in to defend the yen at 151.94 in 2022 and finance minister Shunichi Suzuki on Wednesday used the same words that preceded that intervention, warning Japan would take "decisive steps" against excessive currency moves.The finance ministry said on Wednesday that it will hold talks with the Bank of Japan and the Financial Services Agency at 0915 GMT on Wednesday and will brief reporters afterwards. The announcement boosted the yen slightly.The yen has slumped more than 7% this year, driven by the yawning gap between U.S. and Japanese bond yields, which the Bank of Japan's small interest rate hike last week did little to change. Strong resistance can be seen at 151.93 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.39(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.85(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 150.12(50%fib)
Equities Recap
European stocks struggled for direction on Wednesday after closing at a record high in the previous session as investors waited for more economic data due later this week, while H&M shares surged following upbeat quarterly results..
At (GMT 12:16 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.38 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.46 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.36 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Thursday as investors awaited U.S. inflation data that could offer fresh clues about when the Federal Reserve will start easing its monetary policy.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,190.87 per ounce as of 1016 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5 at $2,189.90.
Oil prices fell for a second day, dropping more than 1% on Wednesday on surging U.S. stockpiles and signs that the OPEC+ producer group is unlikely to change its output policy at a technical meeting next week.
Brent crude futures for May dropped 97 cents, or 1.12%, to $85.28 a barrel by 0929 GMT while the more actively traded June contract fell by 92 cents, or 1.07%, to $84.71.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for May delivery fell 93 cents, or 1.14%, to $80.69.
