Market Roundup
•UK Jan Retail Sales (MoM) 3.4%,1.5% forecast,-3.2% previous
•UK Jan Retail Sales (YoY) 0.7%, -1.4% forecast,-2.4% previous
•UK Jan Core Retail Sales (MoM) 3.2% ,1.7% forecast,-3.3% previous
•UK Jan Core Retail Sales (YoY) 0.7%,-1.6% forecast,-2.1% previous
•German Jan WPI (MoM) 0.1%, -0.4% forecast,-0.6% previous
•German Jan German WPI (YoY) -2.7%, -2.6% previous
•Swiss Industrial Production (YoY) (Q4) -0.40% forecast,2.00% previous
•French Jan CPI NSA (MoM) -0.20%, 0.10% previous
•French Jan French CPI NSA (YoY) 3.10%,3.70% previous
•French Jan French HICP (YoY) 3.4%,3.4% forecast,4.1% previous
•French Jan Inflation (YoY) 2.90%,3.60% previous
•French Jan HICP (MoM) -0.2% ,-0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
•French Jan CPI (MoM) -0.3%, -0.2% forecast,0.1% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:30 Canada Dec Wholesale Sales (MoM) 0.7% forecast,0.9% previous
•13:30 US Jan PPI (YoY) 0.6% forecast, 1.0% previous
•13:30 US Jan PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (YoY) 2.5% previous
•13:30 US Jan PPI ex. Food/Energy/Transport (MoM) 0.2% previous
•13:30 US Jan Building Permits 1.509M forecast,1.493M previous
•13:30 US Jan Building Permits (MoM) 1.8% previous
•13:30 Canada Dec Foreign Securities Purchases by Canadians 12.53B previous
•13:30 Canada Dec Foreign Securities Purchases -6.45B forecast,11.43B previous
•13:30 US Jan Core PPI (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.0% previous
•13:30 US Jan PPI (MoM) 0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•13:30 US Jan Housing Starts (MoM) -4.3% previous
•13:30 US Jan Core PPI (YoY) 1.6% forecast,1.8% previous
•13:30 US Jan Housing Starts 1.450M forecast,1.460M previous
•13:30 US Jan Housing Starts 1.450M forecast, 1.460M previous
•15:00 US Feb Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 2.9% previous
•15:00 US Feb Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations 2.9% previous
•15:00 US Feb Michigan Consumer Expectations 76.5 forecast, 77.1 previous
•15:00 US Feb Michigan Consumer Sentiment 80.0 forecast,79.0 previous
•15:00 US Feb Michigan Current Conditions 82.0 forecast,81.9 previous
•16:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) 2.9% forecast, 2.9% previous
• U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 499 previous
•U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 623 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•17:10 US FOMC Member Daly Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed on Friday as investors digested European Central Bank official comments. ECB member and Bank of France head Francois Villeroy de Galhau said there are several compelling reasons why the ECB should not hold off for too long on an initial interest rate cut this year.Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel said Europe's sluggish productivity growth may slow the fall in inflation to the European Central Bank's 2% target. Schnabel pointed to a number of factors behind the euro zone's long-running economic underperformance versus the United States, including lower investment in technology, more red tape and more expensive energy.She argued this could delay the ECB's victory against high inflation and the timing of its first interest rate cut. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1165(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1281 (Jul 20th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0701(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0688 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound briefly gained but reversed course on Friday after data indicated that UK retail sales increased at their quickest rate in almost three years in January, above expectations, but did nothing to change views about Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy. According to the Office for National Statistics, retail sales increased by 3.4% month on month in January, compared to a 1.5% gain predicted by a survey. The increase was the largest since April 2021. Sterling was last down the day at $1.2581, having traded around $1.25815 prior to the numbers. For the week so far, the pound is on track to log its first weekly decline against the euro in two months, with a 0.1% dip, while against the dollar, it is set for a 0.2% decline. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2600(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2649 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2542(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2511(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The dollar firmed against the Swiss franc on Friday as investors scaled back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Investors are waiting for U.S. producer pricing data later in the afternoon, which might offer an update on major service components of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major rivals, was up 0.02% at 104.26 on Friday, having eased around 0.6% the two previous days. The index is on course to eke out a 0.18% gain for the week, its fifth in a row. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8857(Feb 15th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8893(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8791(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8761(Feb 13th low).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Friday as greenback propelled by investor optimism amid a robust stock market rally, despite lingering uncertainties over the Federal Reserve's rate cut plans. Fed Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that more time is needed to weigh the prospect of a rate cut.The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at its policy meeting next month and traders see the first cut likely in June. The market is awaiting the U.S. producer price index due at 1330 GMT and comments from Fed officials. The Japanese yen weakened 0.18% to 150.16 per dollar, hovering around the 150 mark, a level that puts the market on alert for possible intervention by Japan to support its currency as well as comments from officials. Strong resistance can be seen at 150.88 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 151.33(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 150.00(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 149.59(38.2%fib )
Equities Recap
European shares climbed on Friday, on track to end a data-packed week on a positive note, as stellar earnings updates and hopes of imminent rate cuts by the European Central Bank lifted investors' appetite for risky assets.
At (GMT 13:15 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.33 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.57 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.46 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold held steady on Friday but was on track for a second consecutive weekly fall as traders lowered expectations of rapid U.S. rate cuts, while markets sought more data for further clarity on the Federal Reserve's next move.
Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,006.98 per ounce, as of 1248 GMT, and has lost nearly 1% for the week so far. U.S. gold futures gained 0.2% at $2,019.00 per ounce.
Oil slipped about 1% on Friday as slowing demand forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA) offset support from geopolitical tensions and optimism that the U.S. Federal Reserve might cut interest rates sooner than later this year.
Brent crude futures were down 81 cents, nearly 1%, at $82.05 a barrel at 1155 GMT.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 68 cents, also roughly 1%, to $77.35 in muted trade with the contract set to expire on Tuesday.
