FxWirePro: EUR/USD Short-term Outlook

EURUSD has formed a temporary bottom around 1.12180von Nov 12th 2018 and showing a recovery from that level.The pair recovered till 1.14858 and is currently trading around 1.1400. The pair’s jump was mainly due to huge decline in US bond yield and sell-off in US stock markets.

The major factor which affects EURUSD price are

US bond yield: The US 10 year bond yield has lost more than 15% after hitting high of 3.25%. The yield hits low of 2.717% and is trading around 2.726% The slight weak US economic data and dovish US Fed is the main reason for decline in US bond yield. US 2-year and 5- year yield inverted for first time since 2007.

German and Italy bond yield: The Italian 10 year bond yield has shown a huge jump of more than 50% on Italy budget deficit issue and spread between German and Italy has increased sharply to 330 basis point. The spread is reduced after Italian government agreed to cut budget deficit to 2.04% from 2.40%. The spread has declined to 256 basis point from 330 basis point (sightly positive for Euro).

On the higher side, near term resistance is around 1.14500 level and any violation above targets 1.1475. The pair should break above 1.1500 for further direction.

The near term support is around 1.1350 and any break below targets 1.1300/1.12600. Any violation below 1.1200 confirms bearish continuation.

It is good to buy on dips around 1.13000 with SL around 1.1240 for the TP of 1.1500.