JPMorgan Lifts Gold Price Forecast to $6,300 by End-2026 on Strong Central Bank and Investor Demand 
US Futures Rise as Investors Eye Earnings, Inflation Data, and Wildfire Impacts 
BTC Flat at $89,300 Despite $1.02B ETF Exodus — Buy the Dip Toward $107K? 
U.S. Treasury Yields Expected to Decline Amid Cooling Economic Pressures 
Wall Street Analysts Weigh in on Latest NFP Data 
Energy Sector Outlook 2025: AI's Role and Market Dynamics 
UBS Predicts Potential Fed Rate Cut Amid Strong US Economic Data 
Global Markets React to Strong U.S. Jobs Data and Rising Yields 
Indonesia Surprises Markets with Interest Rate Cut Amid Currency Pressure 
China’s trade data look fine, as both exports and imports rose at a double-digit pace. After seasonal adjustment, trade data in June also saw some sort of improvement.
In the meantime, China runs a huge trade surplus, which is always criticized by the US government.
China's trade surplus fell to USD 42.77 billion in June of 2017 from USD 45.16 billion a year earlier while market expected a USD 42.44 billion surplus, as exports rose less than imports. Year-on-year, sales grew by 11.3 pct to USD 196.6 billion, faster than a 8.7 pct rise in the prior month and beating estimates of a 8.7 pct growth. Purchases jumped 17.2 pct to USD 153.8 billion, compared to a 14.8 pct increase in a month earlier and above consensus of a 13.1 pct rise.
Last week, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI in China unexpectedly rose to 50.4 in June of 2017 from 49.6 in May and beating market consensus of 49.5. It was the highest reading since March, as output and new export orders increased at a faster pace. Also, buying activity rose slightly.
However, the stability in CNY is not because of huge trade surplus, but capital controls. The outward investment data which were also released this morning illustrated a 48% drop in the first half of this year, as the authorities have significantly tightened the quota on outward investment.
That said, as long as China still controls the capital outflows, we can’t see the complete picture of CNY exchange rate.
Implied volatility has fallen sharply in 2017 alongside the rally in EM currencies, but in some cases such as CNH and TRY the decline in volatility has been larger than normal for the magnitude of the move in spot rates.
We believe downside optionality offers the best value and vol would go lower with the spot. A USDCNH 3m put strike 6.75 RKO 6.60 costs around 0.18% (vanilla is about 0.36%) and covers the period preceding the leadership changes in 4Q.
