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Janet Yellen’s testimony: what to watch out for?

With FED chair Janet Yellen ahead, market has now moved to a consolidation phase, and volatility awaits to return after her testimony and through question-answer session. It is expected to begin at 15:00 GMT.

Lot of grounds will be covered today, some of which would be beyond traditional monetary policy and US economy and more into the realm of regulations. She is likely to face tough scrutiny over new laws to regulate FED and its monetary policy decision. Some of them will be on community banking. Expect questions over other central banks' stimulatory monetary policies that driving their exchange rates lower. She would also have to touch up on subjects ranging from China to community banking. She could even face tough scrutiny regarding actions of New York FED during financial crisis.

However, market would mostly be focusing on her remarks regarding monetary policies and US economy.

What to watch out for?

  • Key would be to see, how probabilities are reacting on the comments and that might decide fate of Dollar, till the next monetary policy meeting of FOMC in mid-March. As of now market is pricing no rate hike in 2016. As of now pricing 32% rate cut probability by September.
     
  • Any hints over what might FED do in March.
     
  • According to Yellen, how immune US economy is from recent turmoil in financial markets and weakness in China.
     
  • Explanations of gradual- how many probable hikes it indicates?
     
  • Explanations on recent market moves.
     
  • Comments on US Dollar strength.
     
  • What tools FED might have or willing to use, if recession resurfaces.
     
  • Comments on negative rates.

Dollar index is trading flat ahead of J. Yellen, currently at 96.04.

  • Market Data
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