In order to be able to assess the overall cost to Germany to the state of taking in refugees, it is necessary to determine firstly the average individual payments that immigrants, single people, married couples, young people and children - receive from the German state. 

As there are not (yet) any reliable data on the family structures of immigrants, we have taken the total of benefits to a single adult immigrant as derived above for an estimate, and as demonstrated, these are higher than those for married couples, other couples, young people and children. In doing so, we are thus slightly over-estimating the financial burden borne by the German state.

With regard to the number of immigrants expected in 2015 and 2016, the present rapid influx suggests that the 1½ million by the end of this year envisaged by parts of the media is a realistic figure. However, we expect the Federal government and the Bavarian government to try to reduce the influx of refugees, e.g. by means of stricter legislation4 in Germany or by means of aid to foreign governments to help them improve the lot of refugees in their countries. 

"1.2 million immigrants are expected by the end of the year, and in 2016, if the political measures introduced take effect, one million. In themselves, these estimates, from the present viewpoint, are at the lower limit of a possible trend, but together with the somewhat over-stated estimate of average individual expenditure on refugees, the picture is no doubt a realistic one", says Commerzbank.

On the strength of these considerations, the expected average number of immigrants this year would be 600,000, and 1.45m in 2016, if it is assumed - partly on account of speedier rejection of asylum applications and stricter procedures overall - that 500,000 of this year's immigrants will leave Germany again next year.

This translates into direct government expenditure on refugees of some €7bn this year and €17bn next year, both in comparison with end-2014. On top of this there are indirect expenses, i.e. those not individually allotted, for example for additional staff in the public sector or public-sector building projects. 

"On the basis of what politicians are saying, a further €1.3bn is estimated for this year and €2.7bn in 2016. The total fiscal cost (direct and indirect) would thus reach over €8bn this year and over €19bn next year", added Commerzbank.