VideoAmp’s Oscar Prediction Algorithm Proves Accurate

LOS ANGELES, March 05, 2018 -- As VideoAmp, the software and data solutions company that is powering the convergence of the linear TV and digital video marketing ecosystems, predicted last week, this year’s Oscar winners are:

The VideoAmp Data Science team has built one of the most versatile viewership forecasting algorithms to help provide certainty and accuracy to predicting events such as the Oscars.

• Best Actress: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
• Best Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
• Best Director: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
• Best Picture: The Shape of Water

A photo accompanying this announcement is available at http://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/a9687f2f-d8c1-42b4-b8f9-10b3c3b6bd1a.

The VideoAmp Data Science team has built one of the most versatile viewership forecasting algorithms to help provide certainty and accuracy to predicting events such as the Oscars.

The versatility lies in the abundance of data that is utilized. But more importantly, the difference is in understanding what is occurring right now in people’s lives. Attempting to compensate for this in the algorithm, as this tends to be the variable that requires the most attention, can derail even the most sophisticated predictive models.

Methodology: VideoAmp’s predictive algorithms utilize various inputs to prepare their forecasts:

• Historical US viewership data from previous Oscars going back to 2000
• Incorporated details involving film genre types
• Past winners from genre types
• Additional 2017 award show nominations and victories for film
• Individual actor and director past accolades and accomplishments as available in IMDb

For each movie, VideoAmp extracted a list of awards received/nominated for that year. For each individual actor or actress, VideoAmp extracted a list of awards received or nominated for since the year 2000. Filtering these lists using a manually crafted list of 20 specialized awards and categories, VideoAmp looked at two main inputs that the probability percentages favor in these scenarios: previous award shows nominations & individual (actor, actress, director), and actual award achievements.

Importantly, the current cultural climate was tied into the calculations as well, as films such as “Get Out” and “3 Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri” had their probability likelihoods increase significantly due to this aspect. VideoAmp created a weighting factor to reflect the influence of the social or cultural nuances that may have an influence on the final outcome.

Research and data analysis was conducted by Sofia Apreleva, Lead Data Scientist at VideoAmp. Sofia holds a Ph.D in Physics and Mathematics from St. Petersburg State University.

About VideoAmp
VideoAmp is the software and data solutions company that is powering the convergence of the linear TV and digital video marketing ecosystems. Our software and data solutions enable advertisers to plan, buy, and measure the success of precisely targeted campaigns that reach linear TV, VOD, OTT, and digital audiences. Our linear suite empowers marketers to, for the first time, use digital data for the planning and allocation of upfront TV commitments within existing workflows, including scatter and cross screen initiatives. VideoAmp is backed by Mediaocean, RTL Group and six other top venture capital firms. For more information, visit www.videoamp.com or follow us on Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn.

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