ARK Invest’s Oct. 19 Tesla valuation rests on a projection of $225 billion in cumulative AI infrastructure spending by 2031, a scenario Tesla has not committed to fund.
The forecast starts from roughly $7 billion accumulated by December 2025. In its base case, ARK projects cumulative deployments of 8.1 million robotaxis through 2031 and $753 billion in ride-hailing net revenue that year. It values Tesla shares near $4,400 in 2031, with robotaxis making up about 80% of projected enterprise value.
The model also anticipates cumulative sales of one million Optimus robots to outside customers by 2031, generating $212 billion in revenue. ARK’s total-revenue projection for Tesla reaches $1.449 trillion that year. These projections form part of a scenario in which autonomous rides and humanoid robots become major sources of future sales; both remain model outputs, not reported current results.
In ARK’s simulation of 32 inputs, $3,300 and $5,000 are the share-price outcomes at the 25th and 75th percentiles. The model also factors in dilution from stock-based compensation ARK assumes will vest during the forecast period.
Tesla’s latest results offer an operating baseline. For the quarter ended Sept. 30, the company reported $28.046 billion in revenue and $4.732 billion in capital expenditures; it generated $1.531 billion in free cash flow and delivered 486,532 vehicles. Tesla said cumulative unsupervised robotaxi miles approached 2 million by quarter-end. Cybercab rides in Austin began Sept. 3.
The forecast depends on rapid robotaxi expansion, so delays in approvals or deployment would weaken the modeled case. ARK presents the figures as scenarios and warns that actual outcomes could differ substantially. These figures add to earlier coverage of ARK’s Tesla robotaxi valuation, which highlighted autonomous rides’ role in the 2031 case.
