After FOMC, rates market turns more dovish in hike expectations

Analysts are divided over latest FOMC monetary policy statement, released on Wednesday. While some are taking it as hawkish tinted, since FED  removed reference to risks stemming from early year and global developments, others are considering it dovish as FED left no strong hints or used languages to point imminent rate hike in June. Rather it expressed no rush to hike rates.

Frankly, we, at FxWirePro, was a bit disappointed, not because there was no hike but there was only one dissenter, Esther George, while we expected at least few more.

We guess, market was disappointed too. After initial jolt of Dollar buying, it’s weak across the board. And that is largely due to pushback in hike expectations/probabilities.

• Market is now attaching 89% probability that there won’t be a hike in June, compared to 79% before the meeting.

• Market is attaching 72% probability that there won’t be a hike in July, compared to 64% before.

• Before FOMC market was pricing 53% chance of a hike in September, now it’s pricing 57% odds, that there won’t be one.

Market is now pricing just one hike this year in December and that is also marginally.

Dollar index is currently trading at 93.44, down -5.3% YTD.