The oversupply would then total a good 2 million barrels per day next year even if the call on OPEC climbs to 30.8 million barrels per day as the IEA envisages. OPEC seems like a toothless tiger in the face of this development - as comments by the Algerian oil minister also appear to suggest.
The minister believes that OPEC is incapable of balancing the market on its own, and thus calls upon non-OPEC countries to contribute to reducing supply. That said, this is hardly likely to happen on a voluntary basis: non-OPEC producers will only curb their supply once production is no longer profitable, which in turn presupposes lastingly low prices, says Commerzbank. That is also why it is not surprising that fewer and fewer money managers believe that prices will recover. They cut their net long positions in Brent by an additional 20,000 contracts in the week to 11 August, the fourth significant reduction in a row.


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