Market Roundup
• French 12-Month BTF Auction: 2.551%, 2.476% previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction: 2.192%, 2.159% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction: 2.342%, 2.319% previous
• US Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index (Apr) -2.3 , -0.2 previous
• US 2-Year Note Auction 3.812%, 3.936% previous
• US 2 6-Month Bill Auction 3.590%, 3.590% previous
• US 5-Year Note Auction 3.955%, 3.980% previous
• US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.590%,3.610% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•04:00 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.75% forecast, 0.75% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 03:30 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
•04:00 Japan BoJ Outlook Report (YoY) 06:00 previous
•07:30 Japan BoJ Press Conference
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro initially gained but gave up ground on Monday as investors weighed a diplomatic impasse in U.S.-Iran negotiations and braced for a week packed with central bank decisions, including what is expected to be Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s final meeting at the helm.Iran made a fresh proposal on Monday to defer discussion of its nuclear programme until the broader conflict and Strait of Hormuz shipping disputes are resolved a gambit unlikely to satisfy President Donald Trump, who has made nuclear disarmament the centrepiece of his demands. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six major peers, was down 0.18% at 98.45. It has gained for two consecutive months but is on track to decline in April. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1745(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1800(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1677(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1596(61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling ially gained but gave up ground on Monday as investors were on edge about the Middle East and a slate of central bank meetings later this week.Major central banks are expected to keep policy on hold this week, including the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Fed's meeting, which runs Tuesday through Wednesday, will likely be the last with Jerome Powell as chair.The first central bank to meet will be the Bank of Japan, which is expected on Tuesday to keep its short-term policy rate steady at 0.75%, while the European Central Bank and Bank of England are expected to keep policy unchanged.This week's data will include first-quarter U.S. economic growth and the March Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge for inflation. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3543(Daily high ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3598(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3436(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3407(SMA 20).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to nearly a seven-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Monday, as investors remained optimistic about a diplomatic solution to end the war in the Middle East and awaited policy decisions this week from some major central banks, including the Bank of Canada.The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold at 2.25% on Wednesday as the oil price surge from the war is a temporary shock unlikely to have a lasting impact on inflation expectations, economists said. Steady policy is also expected from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.A government fiscal update, due on Tuesday, also could be a focus for investors. Canada will set up a sovereign wealth fund with an initial endowment of C$25 billion ($18.38 billion) to invest in major domestic projects, Prime Minister Mark Carney told reporters on Monday.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3681(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3713(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3606 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.35598(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped on Monday as yen firmed as investors awaited signals from the central bank on the timing of its next interest rate increase.BOJ widely expected to hold rates at 0.75% after its two-day meeting Tuesday.Focus shifts to quarterly outlook and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s guidance on how the ongoing Middle East conflict may shape future policy.Focus on how strongly Governor Kazuo Ueda signals a potential rate hike at the June meeting.Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Monday she did not see an immediate need to compile a supplementary budget to cushion the economic blow from the Middle East conflict. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.43(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.73(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.07(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European shares started the week on a subdued note as investors braced for a packed schedule of central bank meetings, while worries over stalled U.S.–Iran peace talks pushed up crude prices and dampened risk appetite.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.58 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.19 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.19 percent.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted modest gains on Monday in quiet trading as investors paused ahead of a busy week of earnings, key economic data, the Fed decision, and ongoing Middle East tensions.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.13 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.12 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.20 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell on Monday as stalled U.S.–Israeli Iran peace talks kept oil prices elevated and inflation concerns in focus, while investors turned attention to key central bank meetings this week for signals on the economic fallout of the conflict.
Spot gold was down 0.6% at $4,682.13 per ounce at 1:50 p.m. EDT (1750 GMT). U.S. gold futures for June delivery settled 1% lower at $4,693.70.
Oil prices climbed about 3% to a two-week high on Monday as U.S.–Iran peace talks stalled and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, keeping global oil supplies tight.
Brent futures rose $2.90, or 2.8%, to settle at $108.23 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.97, or 2.1%, to settle at $96.37.
