America’s Roundup: Dollar edges higher against euro after US inflation data, Wall Street ends higher, Gold climbs, Oil falls

Market Roundup

•US CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.4%, 0.4% forecast, 0.1% previous

•US CPI (YoY) (Aug) 3.4%, 3.4% forecast, 3.4% previous

•US Core CPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.3%, 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous

•US Core CPI (YoY) (Aug) 2.4%, 2.4% forecast, 2.5% previous

•US Core CPI Index (Aug) 337.77, 336.79 previous

•US CPI Index, n.s.a. (Aug) 334.98, 334.85 forecast, 333.92 previous

•US Real Earnings (MoM) (Aug) 0.2%, 0.1% previous

•US CPI, n.s.a. (MoM) (Aug) 0.32%, -0.01% previous

•US CPI Index, s.a. (Aug) 334.13, 332.81 previous

•US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep) 4.6%, 4.2% forecast, 4.0% previous

•US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep) 3.4%, 3.3% forecast, 3.3% previous

•US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Sep) 45.8, 50.5 forecast, 51.5 previous

•US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Sep) 47.8, 51.0 forecast, 51.7 previous

•US Michigan Current Conditions (Sep) 50.9, 51.3 forecast, 51.9 previous

Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)  

•No Data Ahead

Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)  

• No Events Ahead

Currency Forecast

EUR/USD : The euro dipped against the U.S. dollar on Friday   but recovered ground as investors assessed US CPI data. U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August, while a key measure of underlying inflation posted its largest increase in four months, reinforcing ​expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week.The Labor Department's Consumer Price Index report on Friday followed strong readings in several components of the Producer Price ‌Index released on Thursday that feed into the Personal Consumption Expenditures price indexes, the inflation measures the U.S. central bank tracks for its 2% target. Soon after the CPI data was published, financial markets priced in a roughly 91% chance of a rate hike next week, up from about 72% on Thursday, CME's FedWatch tool showed.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1622(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1637(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1578(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1539(Lower BB).

GBP/USD: The British pound edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Friday  as investors digested UK GDP data and US inflation figures. British gross domestic product in ​July was 1.6% higher than a year earlier, the fastest annual growth since February 2025 and above economists' 1.2% forecast, the Office for National Statistics ​showed on Friday.The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% last ​month after edging up 0.1% in July, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. ‌In ⁠the 12 months through August, consumer inflation advanced 3.4% after rising by the same margin in July.Meanwhile, traders are now pricing in a 85% chance of a rate ​hike at the central bank's policy meeting next week, up ​from 67% ⁠before the data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3556(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3560(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3482(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards1.3443(Lower BB).

 USD/CAD: The   Canadian dollar came under pressure following U.S. inflation data that boosted bets on a Fed rate hike next week.U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August, while a key measure of underlying inflation posted its largest increase in four months, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week. An intensifying trade war between the United States and Canada has also hurt the Canadian dollar this week, as roughly 70% of Canada's exports, including oil, are shipped to the U.S.Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem last week said that policymakers were prepared to raise borrowing costs multiple times if inflation remained too high.Investors see a 57% chance that the Canadian central bank will tighten policy at its next meeting on October 28, swap market data showed. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3892(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3941(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3767(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3743(Lower BB).

USD /JPY :The dollar initially gained against yen after the US CPI data release but gave ground as investor sentiment remained fragile as an escalating Iran war pushed up oil prices. Oil prices fell but remained above $100 a barrel, while diesel prices were at record highs, suggesting inflation was set to remain elevated and broaden.Labor Department data showed the U.S. Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in August after edging up 0.1% in July. Core CPI increased 2.4% year-on-year in August after rising 2.5% in July.The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates next week and could signal a faster pace of future tightening if rising price pressures increase the risk of inflation overshooting its target, four sources familiar with its thinking said.The yen was on track for a second consecutive weekly gain against the U.S. dollar and was last up 0.45% at 153.69 per dollar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.04(38.2%), an upside break can trigger rise towards 156.79(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at  152.62(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 151.81 (Lower BB).

Equities Recap

European stocks edged higher on Friday as oil prices retreated from a five-month peak, after a week in which rising inflation expectations and elevated bond yields weighed on sentiment and put the market on track for its biggest weekly loss in two months.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.39 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.82 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.78 percent.

U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday as oil prices eased, with firm consumer price data strengthening expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week to curb inflation.

Dow Jones closed up by  0.98% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.86% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.96%  percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold prices climbed over 1% on Friday, rebounding from recent declines and stabilizing in the short term even as firm U.S. inflation data strengthened expectations for a Fed rate hike next week.

Spot gold rose 1.1% ​to $4,363.01 per ounce by 01:40 p.m. EDT (1740 GMT). The metal, however, ​was down about 1.5% for the week.

Oil prices fell but remained above $100 a barrel, while diesel prices were at record highs, suggesting inflation was set to remain elevated and broaden.Brent crude futures  settled down 2.81% at $104.61 a barrel.