Market Roundup
• US GDP (QoQ) (Q1): 2.0%, 2.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
• US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Mar): 3.2%, 3.2% forecast, 3.0% previous
• US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar): 0.3%, 0.3% forecast, 0.4% previous
• US Initial Jobless Claims: 189K, 213K forecast, 215K previous
• Canada GDP (MoM) (Feb): 0.2%, 0.2% forecast, 0.1% previous
• US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q1): 0.9%, 0.8% forecast, 0.7% previous
• US Core PCE Prices (Q1): 4.30%, 4.10% forecast, 2.70% previous
• US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1): 3.6%, 3.8% forecast, 3.7% previous
• US Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar): 0.9%, 0.9% forecast, 0.6% previous
• US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar): 0.7%, 0.7% forecast, 0.4% previous
• US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Mar): 3.5%, 3.5% forecast, 2.8% previous
• US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,785K, 1,820K forecast, 1,808K previous
• Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Feb): 3.36%, 1.93% previous
• US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q1): 0.80%, 0.70% previous
• US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q1): 1.20%, 0.80% previous
• US Real Consumer Spending (Q1): 1.6%, 1.9% previous
• US GDP Sales (Q1): 1.6%, 0.3% previous
• US PCE Prices (Q1): 4.5%, 2.9% previous
• US Personal Income (MoM) (Mar): 0.6%, 0.3% forecast, 0.0% previous
• US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Mar): 0.2%, 0.3% previous
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 207.50K, 211.00K previous
• Canada GDP (MoM) (Mar): 0.4%, 0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Event Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro firmed on Thursday as U.S. dollar fell sharply against major peers after Japanese authorities intervened to support their currency. Japan intervened to prop up the yen against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, its first official currency action in nearly two years. Meanwhile, European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold on Thursday and warned that the war in Iran was fuelling an energy-led rise in euro zone inflation while taking a toll on economic activity.The central bank for the 21 countries that share the euro kept the rate it pays on bank deposits at 2%, as economists expected and policymakers including President Christine Lagarde had suggested.But it sharpened a warning about the fallout from the Iran conflict, and the associated disruptions in fuel flows through the Strait of Hormuz, on the euro zone's economy.Investors expect the ECB to raise the deposit rate three times in the coming 12 months to 2.75%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.17782(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1836(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1715(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1663 (61.8%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound gained versus a weaker dollar as the Bank of England left rates unchanged and maintained a cautious, wait‑and‑see approach to the fallout from the Middle East conflict.The BoE set out scenarios for the economic impact of the Iran war, one of which could require a "forceful" increase in borrowing costs.The Monetary Policy Committee's nine members voted 8-1 to keep the BoE's benchmark Bank Rate at 3.75%, with only Chief Economist Huw Pill seeking a hike to 4.0% now, in line with expectations in a Reuters poll of economists.Faced with deep uncertainty about the duration of the war and the extent of the economic damage it will cause, the BoE on Thursday scrapped its usual practice of publishing a central forecast for inflation and other key economic indicators.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3617(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3655(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3450(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3392(April 13th low).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday and was headed for its biggest monthly advance since April 2025, as the greenback posted broad-based declines and investors weighed the potential for higher oil prices to lead to interest rate hikes in the coming months.The Bank of Canada on Wednesday said it might have to respond with consecutive interest rate hikes if oil prices stayed high and began pushing up inflation. Canada’s economy grew by 0.2% in February from January, matching expectations, while an advanced estimate showed a flat reading for March. That pointed to annualized growth of 1.7% for the first quarter, which would slightly eclipse the BoC's 1.5% forecast. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3618(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3720(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3540 (Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3499(23.6%fib)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped sharply on Thursday after Japanese authorities intervened to support their currency, while oil prices retreated from four‑year highs as investors assessed risks from the war in theMiddle East.Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said earlier on Thursday the time to take "decisive" action in the market was nearing, in her strongest signal yet of potential market intervention to prop up the sagging yen.Two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that officials had intervened to buy the yen,after it hit its weakest level againstthe dollar since July 2024.The dollar fell by as much as 3% against the Japanese currency to 155.5 yen, for thelargest single-day drop since late December 2024.Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.30(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.06(38.2%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.32(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 154.53(61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares rose on Thursday, trimming earlier losses as oil prices eased from four-year highs, while both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged as expected.
At GMT (13:40) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.62percent, Germany's Dax was up by 1.41 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.53percent.
U.S. stocks rose on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting their strongest monthly gains in years as solid corporate earnings helped offset concerns over war-driven oil supply disruptions that pushed crude prices to four-year highs.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.62 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.02 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.89 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold rose on Thursday as the U.S. dollar weakened and oil prices eased, but it remained set for a second consecutive monthly decline amid ongoing inflation concerns linked to the Iran conflict, which continue to dampen expectations for interest rate cuts..
Spot gold was up 1.7% at $4,618.67 per ounce by 01:46 p.m. EDT (1746 GMT), after falling to a one-month low on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures settled 1.5% higher at $4,629.60.
Global oil prices eased after briefly touching a four-year high above $126 a barrel earlier on Thursday, as concerns over a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict and potential supply disruptions in the Middle East continued to drive volatility in energy markets.
Global oil benchmark Brent crude futures rose as high as $126.41 a barrel, the peak since March 9, 2022, but settled down $4.02, or 3.41%, to $114.01.
WTI crude futures closed down $1.81, or 1.69%, at $105.07. The contract reached $110.93 earlier, the highest since April 7.
