Market Roundup
•US Initial Jobless Claims: 213K, 214K forecast, 214K previous.
•US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,850K, 1,850K forecast, 1,871K previous.
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 212K, 215K forecast, 216K previous.
•US Housing Starts (Jan): 1.487M, 1.340M forecast, 1.387M previous.
•US Housing Starts (MoM) (Jan): 7.2%, 4.8% previous.
•US Building Permits (Jan): 1.376M, 1.420M forecast, 1.455M previous.
•US Building Permits (MoM) (Jan): -5.4%, 4.8% previous.
•US Trade Balance (Jan): -54.50B, -66.60B forecast, -72.90B previous.
•US Goods Trade Balance: -80.80B, -98.50B previous.
•US Exports: 302.10B, 286.30B previous.
•US Imports: 356.60B, 359.20B previous.
•US Natural Gas Storage: -42B, -132B previous.
•Canada Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Jan): -1.0%, -0.6% forecast, 1.8% previous.
•Canada Building Permits (MoM) (Jan): 4.8%, -2.0% forecast, 6.1% previous.
•Canada Trade Balance (Jan): -3.65B, -1.10B forecast, -1.30B previous.
•Canada Exports (Jan): 62.48B, 65.55B previous.
•Canada Imports (Jan): 66.13B, 66.85B previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Thursday as surging energy prices stoked inflation worries, which could potentially force central banks to reassess the need for interest-rate hikes.The rapid increase in energy prices poses a threat to global growth, with economists warning that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East would further amplify the economic impact. Meanwhile, the dollar has risen by more than 1.5% against a basket of major currencies and is close to its highest level since November, thanks in part to its safe-haven appeal, but also because the United States is a net energy exporter. The euro was down 0.1% at $1.1558, not far off its lowest since November..Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1577(March 12th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1622(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1509(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1459(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as concerns over persistently high energy prices and ongoing tensions from the Middle East war weighed on sentiment.Oil prices , climbed back to $100 after Iranian boats appeared to have attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters and the country's supreme leader said the closure of the vital Strait of Hormuz should continue.Britain is seen as more exposed than many other Western countries to an energy price shock due to its stretched public finances and its heavy reliance on imported gas.Money markets have abandoned expectations of early Bank of England easing, with futures no longer pricing in a March cut, instead seeing a roughly 40% chance of a quarter-point rise in borrowing costs in December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3444(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3562(50%fib)).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3287(23.6%fib).), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3263(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against the U.S. dollar as the greenback strengthened broadly and data showed Canada’s trade deficit widened unexpectedly in January. The deficit rose to C$3.65 billion from C$1.3 billion in December, as exports were hit by a sharp drop in motor vehicle and parts shipments due to seasonal production stoppages, missing forecasts for a C$900 million deficit.Oil prices, a key Canadian export, surged 9.2% to $95.29 a barrel as Iran intensified attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East. Meanwhile, Canada’s February employment report is due Friday, with economists expecting a gain of 10,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to edge up to 6.6%.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3653 (SMA20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3705 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3619(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3572(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The US dollar edged higher on Thursday as the dollar strengthened as surging oil prices raisied inflation concerns and increasing the likelihood that central banks may adopt more hawkish policy stances.Oil rose for a second day as fears of a prolonged Iran war outweighed a coordinated reserve release by the International Energy Agency, which approved a record 400 million-barrel release. Meanwhile, weak yen has significantly raised the cost of imports for Japanese businesses, particularly energy and commodities priced in dollars. These higher import costs are a key factor contributing to inflationary pressures in Japan.Japanese Finance Minister Katayama and other government officials are currently engaged in budget discussions in the Japanese parliament, known as the National Diet of Japan, which may partly explain the lack of immediate reaction to currency movements. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.46(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.72(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.44 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European stocks closed sharply lower for a second straight session on Thursday, pressured by another steep fall in government bonds as surging energy prices fueled stagflation fears and margin concerns.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.47 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.21 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.71 percent.
U.S. stocks dropped Thursday as Iranian attacks on oil tankers pushed crude toward $100 a barrel, stoking inflation fears and prompting equity sell-offs.
Dow Jones closed down by 1.56 percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.52 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.78 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil settled up on Thursday as attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf and warnings from Iran shattered prospects of quick de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, pushing oil prices to around $100 a barrel and stoking inflation concerns.
Brent crude futures settled at $100.46 a barrel, up $8.48, or 9.2%, after touching a session high of $101.60. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $95.70, up $8.48, or 9.7%.
Gold fell over 1% Thursday, pressured by a stronger dollar and rising inflation fears from the Iran conflict.
Spot gold dipped 1.1% at $5,118.16 per ounce by 1:31 p.m. ET (1731 GMT). U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 1% lower at $5,125.80.
