Market Roundup
• US Redbook (YoY): 7.0%, 6.7% previous.
•USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 47.5, 50.1 forecast, 48.8 previous.
•New Zealand Global DairyTrade Price Index: 5.7%, 3.6% previous.
•US Milk Auctions: 4,301.0, 4,028.0 previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•00:30 Australia GDP (YoY) (Q4): 2.1% forecast, 2.1% previous.
•00:30 Australia GDP (QoQ) (Q4): 0.7% forecast, 0.4% previous.
•00:30 Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Feb): 53.8 forecast, 53.8 previous.
•00:30 Australia GDP Final Consumption (Q4): 0.6% previous.
•00:30 Australia GDP Chain Price Index (Q4): 0.8% previous.
•00:30 Australia GDP Capital Expenditure (Q4): 3.0% previous.
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro initially dipped but recovered some ground on Tuesday as investors assessed the risk of a prolonged Middle East conflict and renewed inflation pressures from rising oil prices. Over the weekend, the U.S. and Israel carried out airstrikes on Iran, targeting Tehran and killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Iran and its ally Hezbollah responded with retaliatory attacks, further escalating tensions across the Gulf region.In Europe, there are growing concerns that another energy shock could push inflation higher while further weighing on already weak economic growth. With the Strait of Hormuz closed to shipping, disruptions to Gulf trade could threaten fuel and petroleum supplies that Europe depends on heavily. The uncertainty is also clouding the policy outlook for both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1697(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1782(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1529(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1499(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound recovered slightly after an early decline on Tuesday as escalating conflict in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher, renewing inflation concerns and leading traders to scale back expectations for interest rate cuts.The latest risk-averse market sentiment added pressure on the currency, which has already been weighed down by worries over the UK’s economic outlook and domestic political uncertainty. During her budget update speech, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said Britain’s economy is projected to grow by 1.1% this year, based on the latest forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility. The new outlook is weaker than the previous 1.4% growth forecast for 2026 published by the OBR in November. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3413(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3530(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3292(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3255(23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar recovered from near a six-week low against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, keeping its recent sideways trend despite Middle East conflict risks. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is scheduled to discuss financial stability risks on Wednesday.Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki said structural supply shocks, including U.S. protectionist trade policies and AI-driven economic shifts, could sometimes require rate hikes even during weak growth.Meanwhile, U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered Iranian retaliation across the Gulf and Lebanon, pushing Crude Oil prices higher a positive driver for Canada’s resource-based economy. The loonie was trading nearly unchanged at 1.3670 per U.S. dollar after touching its weakest intraday level since January 23 at 1.3752.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3743(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3771(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3644(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3555(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar rose on Tuesday as dollar firmed as investors assessed the implications of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on energy prices and the global economy.Israel struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon after rocket attacks, while Iran continued missile and drone strikes on Gulf states. Qatar also halted LNG production, triggering precautionary shutdowns of regional oil and gas facilities. Japan’s Katayama said financial officials are closely monitoring markets with a strong sense of urgency and noted that Japan reached a shared understanding with the U.S. last year regarding potential currency intervention.Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda did not mention monetary policy in a speech on Tuesday, a day after BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said market volatility would not prevent a rate increase. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.61(Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.72(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 155.44 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares fell to a more than one-month low on Tuesday as global equities declined on fears of a prolonged Middle East war and rising inflation risks from surging oil prices.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 2.75 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 3.44 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 3.46 percent.
U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Tuesday as investors worried that the Middle East conflict could persist, raising inflation risks.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.83 % percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.94 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.02% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday as a stronger U.S. dollar and reduced rate-cut expectations weighed on demand, despite rising inflation fears from a prolonged Middle East conflict.
Spot gold was down 3.6% at $5,137.00 an ounce as of 1907 GMT. Prices hit an over four-week high in the previous session. U.S. gold futures settled 3.5% lower at $5,123.70.
Oil prices settled up 4.7% on Tuesday, marking their highest close since January 2025, as intensifying battles involving the U.S., Israel and Iran disrupted energy shipments from the Middle East.
Brent futures settled up $3.66, or up 4.7%, at $81.40 a barrel, its highest settlement since January 2025. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up $3.33, or 4.7%, at $74.56, the highest settlement since June.
