Market Roundup
•US Initial Jobless Claims 187K, 211K forecast, 209K previous
•Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 1.0% forecast, 0.4% previous
•Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 1.2% forecast, 0.0% previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,796K forecast, 1,798K previous
•US Chicago Fed National Activity (Jun) -0.02 forecast, -0.19 previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 207.50K forecast, 214.75K previous
•Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) 0.4% forecast, 1.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•23:30 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) 1.6% forecast, 1.4% previous
•23:30 Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) 1.6% forecast, 1.4% previous
•23:30 Japan National CPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.4% previous
•23:30 Japan CPI, n.s.a (MoM) (Jun) 0.5% previous
•23:30 Japan National CPI (YoY) (Jun) 1.5% previous
•23:30 Japan Foreign Bonds Buying 1,090.1B previous
•23:30 Japan Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks 745.6B previous
•23:30 Japan au Jibun Bank Services PMI (Jul) 52.2 previous
•23:30 Japan Manufacturing & Services PMI (Jul) 52.80 previous
•23:30 Japan au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 55.0 forecast, 54.8 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 13:15 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro slipped lower against dollar on Thursday as investors digested the European Central Bank rate decision. The European Central Bank kept borrowing costs on hold on Thursday but left room for more tightening in the coming months as a widening conflict in the Middle East pushed up energy prices again.The ECB kept its benchmark deposit rate at 2.25% but said it was "closely monitoring the intensity and duration of the shock, as well as its indirect and second-round effects".The ECB raised rates for the first time in nearly three years in June but a string of benign data on prices, wages, economic activity and inflation expectations since then has made a quick follow-up step less urgent and policymakers have called for patience. The euro was last down 0.25% at $1.1384 .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1417(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1456(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1360(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1344(Lower BB).
GBP/USD : The pound edged lower against the dollar on Thursday as escalating Middle East tensions and a sharp rise in oil prices weighed on sterling. Higher energy costs have raised concerns that renewed inflationary pressures could slow the Bank of England’s progress toward its 2% inflation target.The UK remains exposed to rising energy prices, with inflation expected to pick up again later this year despite data showing domestic price pressures eased more than expected in the previous month. The Bank of England is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at next week’s meeting.Meanwhile, money markets are fully pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike by December, with investors assigning around an 87% probability of a second quarter-point increase. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3370(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3430(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3313(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3233(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Thursday as loonie was supported by stronger oil prices and upbeat domestic retail sales data. Canada’s retail sales increased 1.0% in May, matching market expectations, driven by gains at gasoline stations and fuel vendors, along with broad-based improvements across most retail categories. Core retail sales, which exclude gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers, rose 0.9%, supported by stronger demand at general merchandise stores.Meanwhile, oil prices, a key contributor to Canada’s export revenues, jumped 6.2% to $92.40 a barrel after Yemen’s Houthis reported attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, heightening concerns over potential global supply disruptions. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4122(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4132(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4059(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4000(Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar rose against the yen on Thursday as investors kept a close watch on the widening conflict in the Middle East.Oil prices rose for a fifth day on Thursday amid attacks on tankers in the Red Sea by Yemen's Houthis, while the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has nearly shut the Strait of Hormuz.The greenback has found support as markets rein in expectations for U.S. rate cuts, with the American economy's lower vulnerability to energy shocks reinforcing demand for the greenback at the expense of the euro and the yen. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has warned that authorities would take decisive action if needed to address excessive yen weakness. Tokyo previously intervened in currency markets in April and May when the yen breached the 160-per-dollar level. Immediate resistance can be seen at 163.26(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.67(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 162.16(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 160.61(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares recorded their biggest one-day decline in more than two weeks on Thursday, pressured by disappointing corporate earnings, hawkish signals from central banks, and rising crude oil prices..
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.73 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 1.56 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.64 percent.
Wall Street ended lower on Thursday, with the Nasdaq falling more than 2% as fresh earnings updates from major technology firms reignited concerns over massive AI spending. Rising oil prices also fueled inflation fears, pushing bond yields higher and weighing on investor sentiment.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.97% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 1.21% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 2.15% percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices settled above $100 on Thursday for the first time since May, driven by renewed supply concerns after Yemen’s Houthis claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. The disruptions added to existing worries over global oil flows following a near halt in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude futures settled $6.62 higher, or 7%, at $100.69 a barrel on Thursday, marking their highest closing level since May 22.
Gold dropped more than 2% on Thursday, pulling back from a two-week high reached in the previous session, as rising energy prices from the Middle East conflict intensified inflation concerns and boosted expectations for further interest rate hikes.
Spot gold was down 2.1% at $4,043.14 per ounce by 2:10 p.m. EDT (1810 GMT), having hit its highest level since July 7 on Wednesday.
