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Market Roundup
• German Car Registration (MoM) (Aug) -20.7%, 23.8% previous
•German Car Registration (YoY) (Aug) 2.6%, 15.7% previous
•French Business Survey (Sep) 101, 102 forecast, 101 previous
•French Consumer Confidence (Sep) 86, 85 forecast, 86 previous
•German Business Expectations (Sep) 90.4, 89.3 forecast, 89.0 previous
•German Ifo Business Climate Index (Sep) 89.9, 89.1 forecast, 88.8 previous
•German Current Assessment (Sep) 89.5, 89.0 forecast, 88.5 previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 197K, 201K forecast, 198K previous
•US Current Account (Q2) -246.0B, -258.0B forecast, -212.6B previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,719K, 1,750K forecast, 1,717K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 202.25K, 204.00K previous
•Canada Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) -0.7%, -0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
•Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul) -0.7%, -0.8% forecast, 0.6% previous
•Canada Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (Jul) 3.18%, 3.39% previous
•Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Aug) 1.1%, -0.4% previous
•Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) 1.3%, -0.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•US Natural Gas Storage 50B forecast, 44B previous
US KC Fed Composite Index (Sep) 10 previous
US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep) 17 previous
US 4-Week Bill Auction 3.820% previous
US 8-Week Bill Auction 3.920% previous
US 7-Year Note Auction 4.512% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped lower on Thursday as dollar firmed expectations of additional Federal Reserve interest rate hikes following strong economic data and a hawkish shift in rhetoric. The Fed raised rates and signalled further tightening last week, with Chair Kevin Warsh stressing the central bank's independence despite repeated calls from President Donald Trump for lower borrowing costs. The hawkish stance has eased concerns that a Warsh-led Fed would take a softer line on inflation, a prospect that could have weighed on US assets. Investors closely watched energy prices and geopolitics with Brent crude slightly up after jumping overnight as Iran and the United States remain far apart on how to end the war. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1450(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1539(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1348(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1308(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling hit the lowest level in almost three months against the dollar as investors singled out the pound as a key casualty of the dollar repricing sparked by Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift last week.The British currency is on track for its fourth straight daily fall against the greenback, which is hovering around two month-highs. Money markets are pricing in around 100 basis points of BoE rate hikes over the next 12 months, implying four quarter-point increases from the current 3.75% rate. Traders see a roughly 75% chance of a move in November, immediately after the Autumn Budget, with a December hike viewed as a near-certainty. Sterling was down 0.10% at $1.3222, its lowest level since July 1. It dropped about 1.25% since Monday while the U.S. dollar index rose around 0.90%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3347(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3397(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3227(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards1.3178(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar softened on Thursday after Australian labour-market data showed unemployment rising to its highest level since November 2021.Australian employment increased by 39.5K in August, comfortably exceeding the 20K market forecast. However, the unemployment rate climbed to 4.6% from expectations of 4.5%, suggesting that labour-market conditions are continuing to loosen despite solid job creation.Sentiment toward the Australian dollar was also pressured by geopolitical uncertainty, with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian saying Tehran and Washington remain far apart in their peace negotiations.The lack of progress has kept markets focused on the risk of prolonged conflict and its implications for global energy supplies.Attention is now turning to the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7134(Sep 18th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7164(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7080 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 07072(Lower BB)
USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar rose against the yen on Thursday as expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Following Wednesday's hot PMI data, traders also now see a nearly 70% chance of another increase when the US Federal Reserve next meets in October, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, up from 50% a week ago. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Thursday that the principles underpinning the coordinated Japan-US currency intervention in July remain in place, signalling Tokyo's readiness to take joint action again if needed."The principles since the previous joint intervention remain alive," Katayama told reporters, referring to the July 31 operation that Tokyo and Washington said was aimed at countering excessive volatility and disorderly market moves.The Japanese yen has weakened beyond 158 per dollar after the Bank of Japan's rate hike to a 31-year high on Friday fell short of reassuring investors that more aggressive tightening may be on the way. Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.83(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.71(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 156.60(SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares fell on Thursday as oil prices resumed their climb amid stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations, keeping euro zone bond yields near multi-year highs.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.06 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.18 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.25 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices eased on Thursday, pressured by rising oil prices and US Treasury yields, while expectations the Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy further weighed on sentiment.
Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,261.55 per ounce, by 1206 GMT, having hit its lowest since September 17. US gold futures for December delivery eased 0.5% to $4,296.30.
Oil prices rose more than 1% on Thursday as diplomatic talks between the US and Iran showed little sign of progress, while investors focused on uncertainty about a potential US ban on diesel exports.
Brent crude futures were up $1.63, or 1.58%, at $104.71 a barrel at 1200 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate futures were up $1.34, or 1.49%, at $93.53 a barrel.
