Market Roundup
• US ADP Employment Change Weekly 9.00K, 15.50K previous
• US Redbook (YoY) 6.4%, 6.2% previous
• US Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) 1.8%, -0.6% forecast,-1.0% previous
• US Pending Home Sales Index (Feb) 72.1, 70.8 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro recovered ground on Tuesday as market positioning ahead of major central bank interest rate decisions this week.The U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision on Wednesday, with the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan following a day later. They are all expected to keep rates unchanged although traders will be looking out for commentary about inflation and economic outlook amid the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.Expectations for Federal Reserve easing have also been scaled back, with markets now assigning about 25 basis points of cuts this year. Traders are pricing in almost two European Central Bank rate hikes in 2026, a sharp shift from the roughly 50% chance of a cut seen before the conflict began.The euro was up 0.31% against the dollar at $1.15403 after dropping to as low as $1.1409 in the prior session, for its lowest level since August 2025. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1540(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1620 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1404(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1368(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling ticked higher against the U.S. dollar as investors waited for a heavy slate of central bank meetings, including the Bank of England. Investors' focus this week will be on interest rate decisions in the UK, the U.S., and Europe and comments from policymakers on how they intend to navigate the potential energy-driven inflationary pressures.Investors expect the BoE to keep rates steady on Thursday, with investors closely watching any signals about how policymakers would react to a potential new oil shock. British borrowing costs dipped for a second day but remained well above levels seen before the Iran war, with markets now pricing roughly 50% odds of a Bank of England hike in November. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3394(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3421(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3212(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3208(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against dollar as investors looked ahead key central bank decisions this week for clues on the monetary policy outlook in Canada and the U.S. as tensions in the Middle East raged on.The Bank of Canada is widely expected to keep policy unchanged, shifting the spotlight squarely onto the statement and forward guidance. Headline inflation is hovering near cycle lows at 1.8%, while the Bank of Canada’s preferred core indicators the 3-month annualised trimmed and median CPI are running in a subdued range of 0.7–1.3%. This suggests underlying price pressures remain well contained.Domestic data is showing signs of softening, and with the upcoming renegotiation of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement later in the year, the external trade environment is likely to act as a headwind to growth.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3647 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3773 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3659(SMA20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3623(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The US dollar eased on Tuesday as yen gained some traction despite verbal warnings from Japanese authorities. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said underlying inflation was accelerating towards the bank's 2% target, stressing that price rises must be matched by solid wage gains.Further increases in oil prices, a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a dovish outcome from this week's BOJ meeting could see the dollar/yen test 160.Japan Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Monday and reiterated on Tuesday that the government was prepared to take decisive steps against volatility in foreign exchange and other financial markets.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.84(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.66(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 156.87 (SMA 20).
Equities Recap
European shares edged up on Tuesday, extending a calm start to the week, as investors battered by a selloff amid the Middle East conflict awaited key central bank signals to help them assess fresh bets.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.83 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.71 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.49 percent.
Wall Street ended higher Tuesday, led by travel stocks, as the Federal Reserve began its two-day meeting amid concerns over oil prices and Middle East tensions.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.10 percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.83 percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.47 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices held near steady on Tuesday, as market participants monitored the intensifying Iran conflict and awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision.
Spot gold was little changed at $5,004.71 per ounce by 2:03 p.m. ET (1803 GMT). U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled 0.1% higher at $5,008.20.
Oil prices settled more than 3% higher on Tuesday as renewed Iranian attacks on the United Arab Emirates intensified concerns over global supply disruptions, with the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran entering its third week and showing no signs of a quick resolution.
Brent crude futures settled up $3.21, or 3.2%, to $103.42 a barrel while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up $2.71, or 2.9%, to $96.21.
