Market Roundup
• US Initial Jobless Claims 212K , 217K forecast, 208K previous
• Canada Current Account (Q4): -0.7B, -8.2B forecast, -5.3B previous.
• US Continuing Jobless Claims: 1,833K, 1,860K forecast, 1,864K previous.
• Canada Average Weekly Earnings YoY (Dec): 1.94%, 2.30% previous.
• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: 220.25K, 219.50K previous.
• US Natural Gas Storage: -52B, -36B forecast, -144B previous.
• US KC Fed Composite Index (Feb): 5, 0 previous.
• US KC Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb): 10, -2 previous.
• US 4-Week Bill Auction: 3.625%, 3.625% previous.
• US 8-Week Bill Auction: 3.630%, 3.630% previous.
• US 7-Year Note Auction: 3.790%, 4.018% previous.
• US Fed's Balance Sheet: 6,614B, 6,613B previous.
• US Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks: 3.004T, 2.960T previous.
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•23:30 Japan Tokyo Core CPI YoY (Feb): 1.7% forecast, 2.0% previous.
•23:30 Japan CPI YoY (Feb): 1.4% previous.
•23:30 Japan CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy MoM (Feb): -0.3% previous.
•23:30 Japan Tokyo CPI YoY (Feb): 1.5% previous.
•23:50 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Jan) 5.5% forecast, -0.1% previous
•23:50 Japan Large Scale Retail Sales YoY (YoY) (Jan)2.0% previous
•23:50 Japan Retail Sales (YoY) (Jan)0.1% forecast,-0.9% previous
•23:50 Japan Industrial Production forecast 2m ahead (MoM) (Mar) -4.3% previous
•23:50 Japan Industrial Production forecast 1m ahead (MoM) (Feb) 9.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged lower on Thursday as dollar gained ahead of the third round of indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. Investors are keeping an eye on rising tensions between the United States and Iran. The countries made significant progress in talks aimed at resolving a longstanding nuclear dispute and averting new U.S. strikes on Iran, mediator Oman said on Thursday, amid a large-scale U.S. military buildup in the Middle East. Meanwhile,European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said policymakers continued to expect inflation to stabilise at their target rate of 2% in the near term, while repeating her "baseline" expectation that she would stay until the end of her term.Data released on Thursday showed the ECB sold some of its dollar assets early last year and reduced the weight of the dollar in its foreign exchange reserves .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1821(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1872(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1760(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1737(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound slipped on Thursday as UK political uncertainty and reduced tightening expectations from the Bank of England weighed on sterling.Political uncertainty continues to pressure sentiment, as the Gorton and Denton vote in Greater Manchester presents a new test for Starmer. If Starmer’s Labour Party fails to win, growing calls for his resignation could emerge, posing a headwind for the British pound. Meanwhile, speculation is mounting that the Bank of England could cut rates at its March meeting after Governor Andrew Bailey said a reduction is a “genuinely open question. Money markets have priced in an 81% probability of a rate cut at the March 19 meeting of the Bank of England. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3537(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3591(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3487 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3368(61.8%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, as safe-haven demand for the greenback outweighed upbeat domestic data showing a sharp narrowing in Canada’s current account deficit.Canada’s deficit shrank to C$710 million in the fourth quarter from a downwardly revised C$5.27 billion shortfall previously, supported by a smaller goods trade gap. Statistics Canada also reported that foreign investors bought a record C$33.6 billion in federal government bonds during the quarter.Investors now turn to fourth-quarter GDP data due later Friday, which is expected to align with the Bank of Canada’s January projection when it kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 2.25%. The central bank has lowered rates by 2.75 percentage points since June 2024.Meanwhile, oil prices, a key driver for the Canadian economy, slipped 0.2% to $65.28 a barrel as markets awaited the outcome of a third round of U.S.-Iran talks. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3714 (Feb 26th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3745 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3644(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.35630 (Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Thursday as the Japanese yen recovered after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said decisions on potential rate hikes at the March and April meetings would depend on incoming economic data. Overall market moves were muted, with traders awaiting fresh catalysts.Ueda reiterated that the central bank would continue raising interest rates if Japan makes progress toward its economic and inflation targets. Earlier reports indicated Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had expressed reservations about further rate hikes during a meeting with Ueda last week.The yen strengthened 0.12% against the dollar to 156.15, after touching a two-week low of 156.82 on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.48(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.84(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.94 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 154.32 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe’s benchmark index pulled back from a record high on Thursday, pressured by losses in healthcare and technology stocks, while strong earnings from Schneider and Indra helped cap the broader decline.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.37 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.45 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.73 percent.
U.S. stocks fell sharply on Thursday after AI leader Nvidia’s earnings failed to impress investors, dragging down technology shares that had powered the recent market rally.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.03 percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.54 percent, Nasdaq settled down by 1.18 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices were little changed on Thursday as investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the third round of indirect U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, hoping for signals on whether the negotiations could ease geopolitical tensions.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $5,181.29 per ounce at 11:23 a.m. ET (1423 GMT). U.S. gold futures for April delivery were down 0.5% at $5,198.20.
Oil prices settled lower after a volatile session on Thursday, as investors monitored developments in U.S.-Iran talks over Tehran’s nuclear program, assessing potential supply risks if tensions escalate.
Brent crude futures settled down 10 cents, or 0.14%, to $70.75 a barrel. WTI futures settled down 21 cents or 0.32% to $65.21.
