Market Roundup
•US Nov Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) 0.6% ,0.1% previous
•US Nov Retail Control (MoM) 0.4%, 0.2% previous
•US Nov Export Price Index (MoM) -0.9%,-1.0%forecast,-1.1% previous
•US Nov Retail Sales (MoM) 0.3%, -0.1% forecast,-0.1% previous
•US Nov Core Retail Sales (MoM) 0.2%, -0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•US Nov Import Price Index (MoM) -0.4%, -0.8% forecast, -0.8% previous
•US Nov Retail Sales (YoY) 4.09%, 2.48% previous
•Canada Oct Manufacturing Sales (MoM) -2.8%,-2.7% forecast,0.4% previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 202K,220K forecast,220K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims1,876K, 1,887K forecast,1,861K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 213.25K, 220.75K previous
•Canada New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) 151.1K,163.3K previous
•US Export Price Index (YoY) -5.2%, -4.9% previous
•US Import Price Index (YoY) -1.4%,-2.0% previous
•US Oct Retail Inventories Ex Auto -0.9%, -0.9% forecast, 0.4% previous
• US Oct Business Inventories (MoM) -0.1%, 0.0% forecast, 0.4% previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage-55B, -54B forecast,-117B previous
•16:30 US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.6%,1.2% forecast,1.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 02:00 Chinese Nov Industrial Production YTD (YoY) 4.1% previous
• 02:00 Chinese Nov Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 3.0% forecast,2.9% previous
• 02:00 China Dec Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI 75.58 previous
• 02:00 Chinese Nov Industrial Production (YoY) 5.6% forecast, 4.6% previous
• 02:00 Chinese Nov Unemployment Rate 5.0% forecast,5.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro touched a two-week high versus the US dollar as the European Central Bank pushed back against imminent interest rate cuts, a day after the Federal Reserve signaled that it is done raising rates The eurozone's central bank maintained borrowing prices steady and did not even hint at a future cut, laser-focused on combating the most severe spell of inflation in a generation. Instead, ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized that inflation would shortly rise and that price pressures would stay high. This was in sharp contrast to her US Federal Reserve colleague Jerome Powell's more dovish tone on Wednesday. The dollar index was last at 101.96, down 0.88% on the day and the lowest since August 10. The euro gained 1.03% to $1.0987, the highest since Nov. 29. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1000(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1021(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0895 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0873 (Daily low).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose against the dollar on Thursday as the Bank of England maintained interest rates unchanged and pushed back against expectations of rate cut in early 2024 . The Bank of England said interest rates in the United Kingdom needed to remain high for 'an prolonged period' as its Monetary Policy Committee voted 6-3 to retain rates at a 15-year high of 5.25%, in line with analysts' predictions in a poll last week.There was no mention of interest rate cuts, and the Bank of England remains worried that inflation in the United Kingdom will remain higher than in the United States and the eurozone. The pound rose 0.78% to $1.2724, around a 10-day high. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2770 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2826(Aug 10th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2673(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2588(50%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened to a 2-1/2 month high against its U.S. counterpart on as greenback dipped following U.S. Federal Reserve's dovish pivot. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that the tightening of monetary policy is likely over, with a discussion of cuts in borrowing costs coming "into view". The Fed's projections implied 75 basis points of cuts next year, from the current level.Fed funds futures traders are now almost completely pricing in a 25 basis points cut in March, and 150 basis points in rate reductions by Dec. 2024.The dollar index was last at 101.95, down 0.89% on the day. It earlier reached 101.76, the lowest since Aug. 10.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3471(38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3548 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3400(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3377 (23.6% fib).
USD/JPY: the U.S. dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated that its tightening cycle is likely over and flagged rate cuts next year. Seventeen of 19 Fed officials projected lower interest rates by end-2024, after the Fed kept interest rates steady for the third meeting in a row, as was widely expected. Markets are now pricing in around an 89% chance of a rate cut in March from the Fed, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Lower U.S. interest rates put pressure on the dollar and bond yield. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, slipped as far as 102.42, its lowest since mid-August. Strong resistance can be seen at 142.32(38.2%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 143.88(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen 141.02(Daily low)a break below could take the pair towards 140.31(23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares largely held their ground on Thursday as investors shrugged off the European Central Bank pushing back against market bets of interest rate cuts and cheered the U.S. Federal Reserve's dovish shift a day earlier.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 1.33 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.08 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.59 percent.
U.S. stocks pared earlier gains to close modestly higher on Thursday, while benchmark Treasury yields dropped to multi-month lows after investors rotated out of momentum growth stocks following the U.S. Federal Reserve's dovish pivot.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.43 percent, S&P 500 ended up by 0.26 percent, Nasdaq finished the day up by 0.19 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices reached a ten-day peak on Thursday as both the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields declined after the Federal Reserve signalled an end to its monetary policy tightening cycle.
Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,034.31 per ounce by 3:17 p.m. ET (2017 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 2.4% higher at $2,044.90
Oil prices rose 3% on Thursday, extending the previous session's gains, boosted by a weaker dollar and as the International Energy Agency (IEA) lifted its oil demand forecast for next year.
Brent futures settled $2.35 higher, or 3.2%, at $76.61 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $2.11, or 3%, to $71.58.
