Market Roundup
• German GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.2%, 0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous
GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous
•EU GDP (YoY) (Q2) 1.0%, 0.5% forecast, 0.3% previous
•EU Unemployment Rate (Jun) 6.3%, 6.2% forecast, 6.3% previous
•EU Selling Price Expectations (Jul) 17.7, 22.3 previous
•EU Industrial Sentiment (Jul) -6.1, -7.0 forecast, -7.5 previous
•EU Consumer Inflation Expectation (Jul) 30.3, 34.0 previous
•EU Business and Consumer Survey (Jul) 96.9, 96.0 forecast, 95.4 previous
•EU Business Climate (Jul) -0.19, -0.36 previous
•EU Consumer Confidence (Jul) -15.9, -15.9 forecast, -15.9 previous
•EU Services Sentiment (Jul) 4.7, 3.8 forecast, 4.2 previous
• Greek PPI (YoY) (Jun) 8.8%, 13.5% previous
•UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jul) 3.75%, 3.75% forecast, 3.75% previous
•UK BoE MPC vote unchanged (Jul) 6, 7 forecast, 7 previous
•UK BoE MPC vote cut (Jul) 0, 0 forecast, 0 previous
•UK BoE MPC vote hike (Jul) 3, 2 forecast, 2 previous
•US Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun) 0.1%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jun) 3.3%, 3.3% forecast, 3.4% previous
•US GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 1.5%, 2.1% forecast, 2.1% previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 197K, 201K forecast, 188K previous
•US PCE Price Index (MoM) (Jun) -0.1%, -0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•US PCE Price Index (YoY) (Jun) 3.7%, 3.7% forecast, 4.1% previous
•US Personal Spending (MoM) (Jun) 0.3%, 0.4% forecast, 0.9% previous
•US Core PCE Prices (Q2) 3.40%, 3.50% forecast, 4.40% previous
•US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) 6.3%, 4.1% forecast, 3.6% previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,782K, 1,800K forecast, 1,789K previous
•US Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (May) 3.45%, 3.67% previous
•US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Jun) 0.4%, 0.4% previous
•US Real Consumer Spending (Q2) 3.2%, 0.5% previous
•US GDP Sales (Q2) 2.2%, 1.9% previous
•US PCE Prices (Q2) 5.1%, 4.6% previous
•US Personal Income (MoM) (Jun) 0.2%, 0.3% forecast, 0.7% previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 202.75K, 207.75K previous
• Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•15:00 US Dallas Fed PCE (Jun) 2.80%
•15:00 US Natural Gas Storage 37B forecast, 32B previous
•15:00 US 4-Week Bill Auction 3.730%
•15:00 US 8-Week Bill Auction 3.795%
• Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Data Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened on Thursday after data showed Euro zone economy grows faster than expected last quarter. The euro zone economy grew faster than expected last quarter as surging investment in AI, ample government spending and several one-off factors more than offset a drag from high energy costs and the war in Iran.The economy of the 21 nations sharing the euro currency expanded by 0.4% on the quarter, above modest expectations for 0.2% in a Reuters poll as many of the bloc's biggest nations outperformed forecasts, data from Eurostat showed on Thursday.Compared with the same quarter last year, growth in the bloc of 360 million people accelerated to 1.0%, above expectations for 0.5%, as some earlier growth figures were also revised up. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1490(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1457(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1414(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1349(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD : Sterling initially dipped but recovered ground against the dollar on Thursday after the Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75% as expected and said domestic conditions were likely reducing inflationary pressures.Six of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted to hold rates, with three officials voting for a hike, one more than economists polled by Reuters had expected.In updated forecasts, the BoE's central projection showed inflation rising to 3.2% later this year from a 15-month low of 2.6% in June. The BoE's Mann cited a breakdown of a tentative truce between the United States and Iran and a broadening of the conflict this month as the main trigger for her change of view.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3494(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3531(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3344(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3245(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Thursday as dollar dipped after data showed US economic growth slows in second quarter. U.S. economic growth slowed in the second quarter amid a widening in the trade deficit, but an acceleration in consumer spending and robust business investment in equipment related to the buildout of artificial intelligence infrastructure pointed to underlying strength.Gross domestic product increased at a 1.5% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said in its advance estimate of second-quarter GDP on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP rising at a 2.1% pace. Estimates ranged from a 0.8% rate to a 2.9% pace.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7026 (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6969(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6913(July 17th low).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Thursday as market digested Fed rate decision and awaited Bank of Japan's policy decision on Friday. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday left its benchmark overnight interest rate in a 3.50%-3.75% range. Three members of the U.S. central bank's policy-setting committee dissented. They "preferred" a quarter-percentage-point hike.The focus will now shift to the Bank of Japan's interest rate verdict on Friday as traders mull the possible rhetoric from policymakers that could pull the yen above this month's 40-year lows.Economists anticipate Japanese interest rates will stay at 1%. However, recent reports show that central bankers are considering a faster pace of interest-ratehikes, as the economy reels from inflation pressures as the Gulf conflict rages on. Immediate resistance can be seen at 163.99 (23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 164.44(Hiigher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 163.42(July 27th low) a break below could take the pair towards 162.50(SMA20).
Equities Recap
European stocks advanced on Thursday, with the STOXX 50 rising 0.5% and the STOXX 600 gaining 0.4%, as upbeat corporate earnings continued to drive investor sentiment.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.56 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.39 percent, France’s CAC was up by 1.17 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices were volatile on Thursday, easing after earlier gains as investors weighed ongoing Oman-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz against escalating tensions between the United States and Iran
Brent futures were down 36 cents, or 0.40%, at $90.38 a barrel as of 1111 GMT after touching a high of $93.31.
Gold rose on Thursday as a softer U.S. dollar lent support, while investors weighed the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and monitored escalating tensions in the Middle East that could stoke inflationary pressures.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,076.52 per ounce by 1131 GMT. U.S. gold futures for August delivery gained 1% to $4,074.30.
