Market Roundup
• French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.239%, 2.241% previous
• French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.396% ,2.423% previous
• French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.339% ,2.339% previous
•Canada S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 47.8, 51.9 forecast, 51.6 previous
•US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 52.7, 51.6 forecast, 51.2 previous
•US Construction Spending (MoM) (Jan) -0.2%, -0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•US ISM Manufacturing Employment (Feb) 47.6, 50.3 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Feb) 48.6, 55.1 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb) 50.3 ,50.6 forecast, 50.9 previous
•US ISM Manufacturing Prices (Feb) 62.4 ,56.2 forecast, 54.9 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:30 Japan Jobs/Applications Ratio (Jan) 1.25 ,1.25 previous
•23:30 Japan Unemployment Rate (Jan) 2.4% ,2.4% previous
•23:30 Japan Capital Spending (YoY) (Q4) 4.9%, 8.1% previous
•23:30 Japan Monetary Base (YoY) (Feb) -1.8% ,-2.5% previous
•00:30 Australia Current Account (Q4) -11.8B forecast,-14.1B previous
•00:30 Australia Net Exports Contribution (Q4) -0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
•00:30 Australia Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) 0.3% forecast, -0.1% previous
Looking Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•00:30 Australia RBA Meeting Minutes
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro surged against a broadly weaker dollar on Monday after European leaders agreed to draft a Ukraine peace plan for U.S. consideration and acknowledged the need to increase defense spending. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced on Sunday that European leaders had agreed to develop a Ukraine peace plan to present to the United States, a crucial step for Washington to provide the security guarantees Kyiv says are necessary to deter Russia. This decision came just two days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s tense meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, during which Zelenskyy cut his Washington visit short.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0438(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0504(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0361(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0268(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound strengthened against the dollar on Monday as European nations intensified diplomatic efforts for a Ukraine peace deal. At a London summit, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, along with leaders from France and Ukraine, announced plans to draft a proposal for U.S. submission, aiming to secure American backing for security guarantees Ukraine deems vital against Russian aggression. While leaders withheld specific details, French President Emmanuel Macron told Le Figaro before the summit that the plan would propose a one-month ceasefire covering air and sea attacks but excluding ground combat.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2620(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2691(Feb 26th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2500(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2436(Feb 13th low)
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar fell to a one-month low on Monday after U.S. President Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico would take effect on Tuesday, crushing hopes for a reprieve. Financial markets reacted negatively to the move, which had already been delayed by a month. Canada, which sends about 75% of its exports to the U.S., including oil, faced further pressure as U.S. crude futures dropped nearly 2% to $68.37 per barrel amid reports that OPEC+ will proceed with an April output increase and concerns over a trade war’s impact on global growth. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4525(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4418(50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.4479(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.4413(5EMA).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the yen on Monday as greenback weakened after data showed on weaker-than-expected US ISM and construction spending reports. In February, the U.S. manufacturing sector experienced a slight slowdown, with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI declining to 50.3 from January's 50.9, falling short of expectations of 50.7. Despite this, the PMI remained above the 50 threshold, indicating continued, albeit slower, expansion. Concurrently, the ISM Prices Paid sub-index surged to 62.4, marking a 2.5-year high and surpassing forecasts of 56.0, suggesting increased input costs for manufacturers. Immediate resistance can be seen at 150.53(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 152.00(Psychological level). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 148.60(23.6%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 148.001(Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Defense stocks drove European shares to a record high on Monday as expectations of increased military spending rose, while optimism over a Ukraine peace proposal lifted sentiment.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.70 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 2.40 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 1.07 percent.
Wall Street's main indexes plunged late Monday, closing sharply lower after President Trump confirmed the implementation of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
Dow Jones closed up by 1.48% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.76 % percent, Nasdaq settled down by 2.64% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices climbed over 1% on Monday, rebounding from a three-week low, as a weaker dollar and safe-haven demand fueled gains amid concerns over Trump’s tariff policies.
Spot gold gained 1.1% to $2,890.57 an ounce as of 02.04 p.m. ET (1904 GMT). U.S. gold futures settled 1.8% higher at $2,901.1.
Oil prices dropped around 2% to a 12-week low on Monday as reports indicated OPEC+ would move forward with its planned April output increase, while concerns over U.S. tariffs weighed on global growth and oil demand.
Brent futures fell $1.19, or 1.6%, to settle at $71.62 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.39, or 2.0%, to settle at $68.37.
