Market Roundup
• German Business Expectations (Nov) 90.6, 91.4 forecast,91.6 previous
• German Current Assessment (Nov) 85.6,85.5 forecast,85.3 previous
• German Ifo Business Climate Index (Nov) 88.1, 88.6 forecast, 88.4 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
• 13:30 Canada Chicago Fed National Activity (Oct) -0.12 previous
• 13:30 Canada Corporate Profits (QoQ) -1.7% previous
• 13:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM) (Oct) 3.3% previous
• 14:00 French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.084% previous
• 14:00 French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.027% previous
• 14:00 French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.041% previous
•14:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate (Sep) 77.3% forecast,77.4% previous
•14:15 US Production (MoM) (Oct) 0.1% previous
•14:15 Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) 0.87% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Release(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against the dollar on Monday as investors waited for clearer signals on the U.S. interest-rate outlook. Expectations for rate cuts jumped to 74% from 40% on Friday after dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams. However, other Fed officials struck a more cautious tone, with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan arguing that rates should remain on hold “for a time,” while the Chicago and Cleveland Fed presidents warned that cutting too soon could pose significant risks to the economy.The euro zone’s data calendar is relatively light, with economic sentiment and consumer-confidence surveys due. Germany, however, faces a busy week with the Ifo business survey, final Q3 GDP, retail sales, and CPI all scheduled for release. The European Central Bank will publish the minutes of its October policy meeting on Thursday, and ECB President Christine Lagarde is also set to speak. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1630(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.16478(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1583(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1530(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling firmed on Monday as sterling firmed ahead of Britain's budget announcement this week. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will announce her long-awaited budget on Wednesday, seeking to reassure investors that the government can be trusted to be fiscally prudent while honouring pre-election promises not to raise taxes on working people.Sterling was last up 0.2% at 205.22 yen, after last week rising to its highest since July 2024.Data showed business growth almost ground to a halt this month and that retail sales had tumbled in October, as a closely watched gauge of household sentiment also fell.However, the data did boost traders' expectations of an interest rate cut next month from the Bank of England. Markets are currently pricing in nearly a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point easing.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3125(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3139(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3000(Psychological level), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2974(Lower BB).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar inched higher on Monday as traders looked ahead to this week’s key CPI inflation release. The Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish its new, fully updated monthly CPI series on Wednesday, replacing the previous partial dataset. A Reuters poll suggests weighted annual CPI will remain sticky at 3.6%. Investors are closely watching housing and market-services prices for clearer signals on underlying inflation trends. Meanwhile, interest-rate swaps show limited expectations for an RBA cut before May next year with odds around 50% after last quarter’s inflation spike dampened hopes for further policy easing. The Aussie was last trading up at 0.14% at $0.6464. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6514(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6523 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6424(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6447(Lower BB)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Monday as investors watched for any signs of official buying from Tokyo to stem the slide in the Japanese currency. Japan’s currency has been sliding on a combination of looser fiscal policies and some of the lowest interest rates in the world. It found some support on Friday, bouncing from 10-month lows after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stepped up verbal intervention warnings to stem the currency's decline. Traders see a risk of intervention somewhere between 158 and 162 yen per dollar, with Thanksgiving-thinned trade later in the week a possible window for authorities to step in. Looking ahead, Japan will release Tokyo core CPI, unemployment figures, industrial production, and retail sales on Friday, while Bank of Japan Board Member Asahi Noguchi is scheduled to speak on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 157.66(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 158.00 (Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.85 (Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards 155.34 (38.2%fib)
Equities Recap
Shares in European arms makers fell for a second day on Monday as the U.S. and Ukraine were set to continue work on a plan to end the war with Russia.
At (GMT 13:30),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.29 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.73 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.14 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices steadied on Monday after falling roughly 3% last week, as markets balanced expectations of a potential U.S. rate cut with optimism around a possible Ukraine peace agreement that could pave the way for easing sanctions on major producer Russia.
Brent crude futures inched up 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $62.68 per barrel by 1300 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate gained 11 cents, or 0.2%, at $58.17 a barrel.
Gold prices were little changed on Monday, with rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month helping to offset headwinds from a stronger U.S. dollar.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $4,069.10 per ounce, as of 1153 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.3% to $4,065.40 per ounce.
