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Apple's ambitious AI initiative, Apple Intelligence, won't offer serious capabilities until 2026 or 2027, according to analyst Edison Lee. This delay may impact iPhone sales growth, as significant AI advancements are still years away.
Apple Intelligence's 'Serious' AI Delayed Until 2026 or 2027
According to one expert, we should be even more realistic in our expectations since Apple Intelligence will not provide serious AI capabilities until either 2026 or 2027.
Since the new capabilities could only be accessed by upgrading to the iPhone 16 (iPhone 15 Pro owners excluded), rumors circulated that Apple Intelligence was pushing a supercycle of iPhone 16 purchases. But the data we have so far suggests that iPhone sales this year are about the same as last, so AI isn't exactly drawing in customers just yet.
iPhone 16 Sales Not Boosted by AI Features
In the opinion of Jefferies analyst Edison Lee, this comes as no surprise. According to The Street, he stated that it is unlikely for iPhone sales to expand by 5-10% this year.
He acknowledges that Apple has a significant edge over competing smartphone manufacturers when it comes to artificial intelligence (AI), but he predicts that it will be at least two to three years before this advantage significantly boosts demand for new iPhone models.
Apple's Edge in AI Won't Drive Sales Until 2026 or Later
“We like Apple Intelligence long term, as Apple is the only hardware-software integrated player that can leverage proprietary data to offer low-cost, personalized AI services,” Lee stated. “However, smartphone hardware needs rework before being capable of serious AI, likely by 2026/27.”
Regardless, Lee maintains that Apple will outperform Android-based rivals in the long run due to its technological and financial advantages, especially considering its collaboration with semiconductor manufacturer Taiwan Semiconductor.
iPhone 17 Air Expected to Drive Sales Before AI Tech
He does anticipate iPhone growth for Apple next year, but he says the thinner iPhone 17 Air is more to blame than Apple Intelligence, as per 9to5Mac.
“We believe AI-capable smartphone tech is likely 2-3 years away due to limitations in high-speed memory and advanced packaging tech,” he noted. “[But] Apple’s thin model (17 Air) in 2025 could attract more upgrade demand.”
