In a pre-election poll, 59% of likely Arab American voters planned to vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, while 26% planned to vote for the Republican ahead of the U.S. midterm election. The figures reflect stated preferences before voting, not election results.
The Arab American Institute (AAI), which commissioned the study, said John Zogby Strategies collected online responses from 500 likely Arab American voters between Oct. 16-23. AAI reported a 4.5-point margin of error in either direction.
Party identification leaned less strongly toward one party: 41% identified as Democrats, 27% as Republicans and 31% as independents. The institute put Democratic identification at 23% in 2024. AAI President Jim Zogby said, “Support for Democratic candidates has rebounded, yet the number of those identifying as independent remains at a historic high.” The poll cannot show how any individual respondent’s party identification changed since 2024.
In the AAI survey, 82% said they had suffered hardship as prices rose. 65% said their ethnic identity or country of origin had been a basis for discrimination, compared with 53% in 2023. For 90% of respondents, Gaza was a very or somewhat important factor in their choice for president in 2028.
A separate Washington Post-Schar School poll found that 58% of Arab American registered voters planned to vote for Democratic congressional candidates, while 34% planned to vote for Republicans. The poll’s methodology lists 325 Arab American registered voters surveyed from Aug. 20 to Sept. 7 and a margin of error of seven percentage points. The polls covered different samples in separate periods, so their results are separate snapshots.
An earlier EconoTimes account of the poll’s Trump-voter subgroup said 73% of 99 respondents who reported voting for Trump in 2024 planned to vote for Republicans for Congress, compared with 26% for Democrats. The subgroup’s margin of error was 13 percentage points. The U.S. midterm election is scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 3.
