Market Roundup
- US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 281k, (consensus 285k, previous 267k)
- US Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg w/e 282.25k, (previous 285.25k) (lowest since Jun 2000)
- Canada Building Permits MM Feb -0.9%, (consensus 5%, previous -12.3%)
- Mexico 12-Month Inflation Mar 3.14%, (consensus 3.04%, previous 3%)
- BOE leaves rate/QE APP steady, makes no statement after decision
- IMF's Lagarde many countries lagging on structural reforms, EM growth f/c worse than last yr
- ECB raises ELA cap for Greek banks by EUR 1.2b
- UK's Labour party gains support to 35%, conservatives fall back to 31% in Survation poll
- Greece completes payment of EUR 450m loan trance to IMF due Thursday
- Mexico CB minutes show some board members wary Fed expectations could hit peso
- Fitch revises Brazil outlook to negative; affirms IDRS at 'BBB'
- German 10-yrbund hits record low at 0.14% (Tradeweb)
- Reuters Poll Bank of Canada not seen cutting rates further
- Reuters Poll EUR/USD seen at 1.07 in 1 mos, 1.04 in 6 mos & 1-yr (FXPOLLS in Eikon)
- Carry trades gain as German rates at record low, investors chase alpha/yield; EUR crushed on inflow hedging as Eurostoxx hits 7 yr high
- EM higher on commodities rebound; EEM 7 mo highs; RUB big winner, BRL firm, Greece up
- US rates higher as 4wk avg Jobless Claims at multi-decade lows
- USDJPY up as Nikkei>20k; cable lowest close since 2010; CAD weaker on Bldg Permits miss; AUD up on carry interest, strong Asia
- Oil up as US/Iran deal in trouble; conflicting views between parties
- Alcoa hammered as first Q1 earnings report; USD, oil blamed; Street lowers YoY S&P EPS to negative for first time since 2009
- (1950 ET/ 2350 GMT) Japan Bank Lending YY Mar (previous 2.5%)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) China PPI YY Mar (consensus -4.8%, previous -4.8%)
- (2130 ET/ 0130 GMT) China CPI YY Mar (consensus 1.3%, previous 1.4%)
- No Significant Events
FX Recap
USD/JPY: The greenback has found renewed strength on a hawkish FOMC minutes. On the other hand, while the Nikkei remains buoyant, support should continue to play out for the major unit. USD/JPY in positive territory, bids are coming in on the mid point of the 120 handle. The pair is approaching key resistance levels at 120.82, currently trading at 120.66 with a high of 120.68 and a low of 119.85. Option expiries Friday 10th April: 118.80 (500M), 119.00-15 (584M), 119.50 (1BLN), 120.00 (383M), 121.00 (1.1BLN)
EUR/USD: The single currency is extending declines against USD on Thursday. EUR/USD now gyrating around the 1.0640 area, in 3-week lows, down over 1% on the day. Better-than-expected weekly report on the US labour market and IMF's C.Lagarde comments about gloomy prospects for economic growth in the euro region added further selling pressure to the EUR. The pair could target 1.0600 if it breaks below 1.0613 (low ). On the upside, hurdles are at 1.0788 (hourly high Apr.9), 1.830 (10-d MA) and finally 1.0888 (high Apr.8). Option expiries Friday 10th April: 1.0600 (300M), 1.0700 (729M), 1.0750 (339M), 1.0800 (591M)
NZD/USD: During the European session the pair rose to test yesterday highs around 0.7605/10, but erased gains in the NY session. NZD/USD was capped again by 0.7605/10 as was on Wednesday and is currently trading at 0.7540, slightly lower for the day. Support lies above 0.7520/25 and resistance is below 0.7610.
GBP/USD: Cable breaks below the 1.47 mark to hit its lowest level in 3 weeks amid broad dollar strength. GBP/USD has lost more than 150 pips over the last hours and hit a low of 1.4683, last seen March 18. Immediate supports are seen at 1.4683, 1.4634 and 1.4600. On the flip side, resistances could be found at 1.4760 (intraday level) and 1.4840 (21-day SMA). Option expiries Friday 10th April: 1.4650 (341M)
EUR/GBP: The euro weakened across the board and pushed EUR/GBP to test April lows again. The pair peaked at 0.7277 but erased gains and dropped toward daily lows. The decline was capped by the area around 0.7220, which has now become a key short term support. If the pair breaks lower it could test levels last seen in mid March. EUR/GBP currently trades at 0.7235/40, on track to post the lowest daily close for the month.
