Market Roundup
• New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar) 0.7%, 1.4% previous
• New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar) 2.7%, 1.5% previous
• New Zealand FPI (MoM) (Mar) -0.6%, -0.1%previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 08:00 EU Current Account (Feb): 29.8B forecast, 37.9B previous
• 08:00 EU Current Account n.s.a. (Feb): 13.0B previous
• 08:00 Italy Trade Balance EU (Feb): -1.14B previous
• 08:00 Italy Trade Balance (Feb): 3.83B forecast, 1.09B previous
• 08:00 EU Trade Balance (Feb): 11.7B forecast, -1.9B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Friday as investors awaited further details on Middle East peace hopes. A 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel went into effect on Thursday and President Donald Trump said the next meeting between the U.S. and Iran could take place over the weekend.Meanwhile, U.S. and Iranian negotiators have scaled back ambitions for a comprehensive peace deal and are now seeking a temporary memorandum to prevent a return to conflict, with the nuclear issue remaining a core obstacle. The dollar index , which measures the greenback's strength against six major peers, was steady at 98.235. It was on track for a second straight week of declines, having given up most of the gains sparked by the war, as ceasefire optimism continued to reduce demand for safe-haven assets. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1823(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1900(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1728(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1658(April 14th low).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower against the dollar on Friday as hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal eased fears of higher inflation and elevated interest rates.A 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel went into effect on Thursday and U.S. President Donald Trump said the next meeting between the United States and Iran may take place over the weekend.Concerns that higher energy prices could stoke inflation and keep global interest rates higher for longer Bank of England interest rate-setter Megan Greene, among the policymakers most worried about price pressures prior to the war, said on Tuesday it could take months to see how much long-lasting damage is caused to Britain's economy by the energy price spike and that upside risks to inflation were "paramount" to her thinking. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3591(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3655(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3532(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3499(April 14th low).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar hovered near 4-year higher on Friday as optimism over a potential Middle East peace deal strengthened risk sentiment. Sentiment boosted by reports of a possible interim U.S.–Iran agreement ahead of a ceasefire deadline, alongside a 10-day Israel–Lebanon ceasefire, both of which have improved hopes for broader diplomatic progress in the region. Market pricing has also turned more hawkish on the Reserve Bank of Australia, with futures now implying a 76% probability of a rate hike in May. The Antipodean was still on track for a weekly gain of about 1.2%, its third consecutive rise, having rallied nearly 5% from its March low of $0.6834.Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7195 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7231(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7151(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7087(38.2%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Wednesday as modest dollar uptick provided support to the currency pair. The U.S. dollar edged higher amid hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict reduced safe-haven demand and improved overall risk sentiment. The U.S. and Iran are said to be preparing for another round of talks ahead of the ceasefire deadline, even as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz keep energy markets on edge. The yen continues to be sensitive to rising oil prices, as Japan depends heavily on imported energy, particularly from the Middle East. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.23(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.73(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.07(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks dipped on Friday as investors reduced risk ahead of a key weekend that could shape prospects for a near-term Middle East war resolution.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 1.57% , Hang Seng was up at 1.06%, China A50 was down at 0.40 %
Commodities Recap
. Oil prices fell in early Friday trade as optimism grew that the Middle East conflict may be easing, after a 10-day Israel–Lebanon ceasefire took effect and U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. and Iran could hold talks over the weekend.
Brent crude futures declined by $1.34, or 1.35%, to $98.05 a barrel at 0021 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $1.65, or 1.74%, to $93.40 a barrel, trimming gains from the previous session.
Gold held largely steady on Friday and was on track for a fourth straight weekly gain, as hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal eased fears of higher inflation and elevated interest rates.
Spot gold eased 0.1% to $4,784.72 per ounce by 0646 GMT, but was up about 1% so far this week. U.S. gold futures for June fell 0.1% to $4,805.20.
