Market Roundup
• US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jul) 0.1%, 0.3% forecast, 0.3% previous
•US Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) -23K, 85K forecast, 20K previous
•US Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4.1%, 4.2% forecast, 4.2% previous
•US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) 30K, 78K forecast, 30K previous
•US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (Jul) 3.2%, 3.5% forecast, 3.4% previous
•US Participation Rate (Jul) 61.4%, 61.5% previous
•US U6 Unemployment Rate (Jul) 7.9%, 7.9% previous
•US Manufacturing Payrolls (Jul) 5K, 4K forecast, 11K previous
•US Government Payrolls (Jul) -53.0K, -10.0K previous
•US Average Weekly Hours (Jul) 34.3, 34.3 forecast, 34.3 previous
•Canada Unemployment Rate (Jul) 6.4%, 6.5% forecast, 6.5% previous
• Canada Employment Change (Jul) 75.1K, 17.8K forecast, 18.2K previous
• Canada Part Time Employment Change (Jul) 36.6K, 17.5K previous
• Canada Full Employment Change (Jul) 38.6K, 0.6K previous
• Canada Avg hourly wages Permanent employee (Jul) 3.0%, 3.7% previous
• Canada Ivey PMI (Jul) 55.1, 55.4 forecast, 56.2 previous
• Canada Ivey PMI n.s.a (Jul) 54.1, 59.7 previous
•US Consumer Inflation Expectations (Jul) 3.6%, 3.7% previous
•US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 454, 452 forecast, 451 previous
•US U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 588, 588 previous
•US Consumer Credit (Jun) 14.17B, 11.40B forecast, -1.08B previous
• Canada Participation Rate (Jul) 65.1%, 65.0% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• No Data Ahead
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro rose against dollar on Friday after data showed U.S. employment unexpectedly declined in July, raising concerns about the economy and how the Federal Reserve may respond with interest rates.The U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, Labor Department data showed, compared with economists' expectations for an increase of 80,000 jobs in a Reuters poll.Data also showed that the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 4.1% last month, pushing the labor participation rate to a near 5-1/2-year low of 61.4% .Markets are now pricing in a nearly 56% chance that the Fed will hold rates in September, up from 45% a day earlier, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.The euro was last up 0.31% against the dollar at $1.1559..Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1573(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1600(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1478(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1454(SMA 20).
GBP/USD : The British pound strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday after unexpectedly weak U.S. employment data reduced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike.U.S. payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, sharply missing forecasts for an 80,000 increase. The data gave the Fed greater flexibility to leave rates unchanged next month while awaiting further economic indicators, including next week’s inflation repor, Money markets had been evenly divided on the prospects of a Fed rate increase next month before the payrolls report. After the data, the implied probability of a hike fell to about 40% from roughly 55% earlier. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3531(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3543(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3438(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3411(SMA 20).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Friday after stronger-than-expected employment data showed the country’s labour market remained resilient despite U.S. tariff pressures and broader economic uncertainty.Canada added 75,100 jobs in July, well above expectations, with gains across both full-time and part-time employment, Statistics Canada reported. The unemployment rate fell for a third straight month, declining to 6.4% from 6.5% and reaching its lowest level since July 2024. Average hourly wages for permanent employees, closely watched by the Bank of Canada as an indicator of inflation pressures, rose 3.0% year-on-year in July, down from 3.7% in June and marking the slowest growth since February 2022.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.4054(SMA20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4078(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3934(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3920(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar weakened against the yen on Friday after unexpected soft U.S. employment data reinforced concerns about the strength of the American labor market. The yen also remained supported by the risk of further currency intervention, following a rare coordinated move by Japan and the United States last week to stem the currency’s decline.U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, reversing a downwardly revised gain of 20,000 in June, according to the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. The weaker-than-expected figures prompted traders to reassess the outlook for U.S. interest rates and put additional pressure on the dollar.Shortly after the data was released, Japan’s finance minister said Tokyo and Washington had been in close contact and remained prepared to intervene if necessary. Intervention concerns have intensified throughout the week after the two countries confirmed coordinated yen purchases last Friday, an unusually direct effort to support the Japanese currency. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.57 (Aug 6th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.25(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 156.38(Lower BB) a break below could take the pair towards 155.34 (23.6%fib).
Equities Recap
Europe’s STOXX 600 hit a fourth straight record close on Friday, led by technology stocks and upbeat earnings, while softer U.S. jobs data boosted sentiment.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.31 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.69 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.17percent.
U.S. stocks rose on Friday, with the S&P 500 hitting a record high as weak jobs data reduced expectations of a September Fed rate hike.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.28 % percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.62% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.30% percent.
Commodities Recap
Brent crude rose more than $1 a barrel on Friday as uncertainty persisted over negotiations to reopen the key shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz..
Brent crude futures settled at $83.55 a barrel, gaining $1.06, or 1.3%. West Texas Intermediate futures finished at $78.18 a barrel, up 89 cents, or 1.15%.
Gold surged to a seven-week high on Friday after an unexpected drop in U.S. July payrolls dampened rate-hike expectations, putting bullion on track for its best weekly gain in seven months.
Spot gold jumped 2.3% to $4,336.02 per ounce by 2:42 p.m. EDT (1842 GMT), having risen more than 3% to its highest since June 17.
