Market Roundup
• Japan M3 Money Supply (Mar)2,280.3B,2,274.5B previous
• Japan M2 Money Stock (YoY) 2.0%, 1.6% forecast, 1.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 10:30 Chinese Total Social Financing (Mar) 5,400.0B forecast,2,380.0B previous
• 10:30 Chinese Outstanding Loan Growth (YoY) (Mar) 5.9%forecast, 6.0% previous
•10:30 German 12-Month Bubill Auction 2.270% previous
•10:30 German 6-Month Bubill Auction 2.121% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•11:00ECB's De Guindos Speaks
Currency Forecast
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Monday as dollar firmed as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran broke down and the American Navy prepared a blockade of Iranian ports, though the greenback pared gains as the trading session continued. President Donald Trump on Sunday said the U.S. Navy would start blockading the Strait of Hormuz after talks with Iran failed to reach a deal to end the war, jeopardizing a fragile two-week ceasefire. The U.S. Central Command said U.S. forces would begin implementing the blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports from 10 a.m.ET (1400 GMT) on Monday. Iran's Revolutionary Guards responded by warning that military vessels approaching the Strait will be considered a ceasefire breach and dealt with harshly and decisively. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1741(April high)), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1800(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1565(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1546(SMA 20).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened against the dollar on Monday as the greenback firmed after high-stakes U.S.-Iran peace talks ended without agreement. Trump said on Sunday that the price of oil and gasoline may remain high into the midterm elections in the U.S. in November, a rare acknowledgement of the potential political fallout from the war.The Wall Street Journal reported Trump and his advisers were weighing limited strikes on Iran, though there were no immediate reports of attacks in the Asia day.The U.S. move, aimed at putting pressure on Tehran, leaves a fragile ceasefire hanging in the balance and no end in sight to the choke on Middle East energy exports - though the mood on trading floors leaned toward hoping for a resolution. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3510(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3531(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3373(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3220(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar initially eased on Monday but the pair managed to recover from a sharper decline seen shortly after the open as volatility remained elevated.Risk sentiment weakened after U.S.-Iran peace talks collapsed over the weekend, fueling fears of a renewed escalation in the conflict and driving demand for safe-haven assets at the expense of risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar.Concerns intensified further after the U.S. signaled a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing energy prices sharply higher, with WTI crude surging over 8%, adding to global inflation worries and dampening investor confidence.Despite the partial rebound, AUD/USD’s upside momentum may prove limited, with gains likely to stall near the 0.7040 level, which marks Monday’s opening range and a key near-term resistance zone.Market participants will also be watching remarks from Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who is scheduled to speak in New York later Monday, for any signals on the policy outlook.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7068 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7093(April 11 t high ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6980(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6896(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Monday as failure of U.S.-Iran peace talks over the weekend, prompting renewed safe-haven demand for the U.S. dollar.Unresolved geopolitical tensions continue to support the U.S. dollar, although traders remain cautious heading into the weekend.The U.S. military said it will begin a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports and coastal areas on Monday after weekend talks failed to reach a deal to end the war with Iran, jeopardizing a fragile two-week ceasefire. Traders are awaiting a speech from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda later on Monday which may provide clues about how the central bank will react to the energy shock caused by the Iran war, as the prospect dims of a rate hike at its next meeting ending on April 28.At the same time, there is a gradual shift in market attention back toward central bank policy signals. Japan’s Trade Minister Yoji Muto Akazawa hinted at potential policy measures that could support the yen and help contain inflation, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan may consider a rate hike at its end-April meeting. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.86(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.26(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 158.78(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian equity markets fell on Monday as oil prices surged after U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad over the weekend ended without a deal, dampening investor sentiment..
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 1.90% , Hang Seng was up at 0.52%, China A50 was up at 1.59 %
Commodities Recap
Oil prices surged on Monday as the U.S. moved to impose a blockade on Iranian shipping after the collapse of weekend peace talks, while the dollar rose and stocks and bonds fell.Brent crude futures LCOc1 were up 7.3% at $102 a barrel - a gain of more than 40% since the war shut navigation of the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold prices touched a near one-week low on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar, while a surge in oil prices following failed U.S.-Iran peace talks fuelled inflation worries and dampened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $4,726.64 per ounce, as of 0620 GMT, after hitting its lowest since April 7 earlier in the day at $4,643. U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell 0.8% to $4,748.70.
