Market Roundup
• Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Jan) 0.5% , 0.7%forecast,0.8% previous
•Australia Housing Credit (Jan) 0.6%,0.7% previous
•New Zealand M3 Money Supply (Jan)441.7B, 447.9B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•07:00 German Import Price Index (YoY) (Jan)-2.3% previous
•07:00 German Import Price Index (MoM) (Jan) 0.6%forecast,-0.1% previous
•07:45 French GDP (QoQ) (Q4): 0.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
•07:45 French Consumer Spending (MoM) (Jan): 0.4%, -0.6% previous
•07:45 French CPI (MoM) (Feb): 0.5% forecast, -0.3% previous
•07:45 French GDP (YoY) (Q4): 1.1% forecast, 0.9% previous
•07:45 French HICP (MoM) (Feb): 0.5%, -0.3% previous
•07:45 French PPI (MoM) (Jan): 0.2% previous
•07:45 French CPI (YoY) (Feb): 0.8% forecast, 0.3% previous
•07:45 French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (Q4): -0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous
•07:45 PPI (YoY) (Jan): -2.00% previous
•07:45 French HICP (YoY) (Feb): 0.7% forecast, 0.4% previous
•08:00 Switzerland GDP (QoQ) (Q4): 0.2% forecast, -0.5% previous
•08:00 Switzerland GDP (YoY) (Q4): 0.5% previous
•08:55 Germany Unemployment Rate (Feb): 6.3% forecast, 6.3% previous
•08:55 Germany Unemployment Change (Feb): 2K forecast, 0K previous
•08:55 Germany Unemployment n.s.a. (Feb): 3.085M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged up on Friday as dollar dipped as investors assess U.S-Iran negotiations. The U.S. and Iran plan to resume negotiations over Tehran's nuclear programme after consultations in their countries' capitals, Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi said in a post on X after the day's meetings in Switzerland.Any substantial move forward could curb chances for U.S. President Donald Trump to carry out a threatened attack on Iran that many fear could escalate into a wider war. Tensions also flared between Pakistan and its northern neighbour, with air and ground strikes against Taliban posts, headquarters and ammunition depots in multiple sectors along the border. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits increased slightly last week, but data showed that the unemployment rate appeared to hold steady in February in a stable labour market..Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1821(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1872(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1760(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1737(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound dipped on Friday after British Prime Minister Labour Party suffered an election defeat in an area of Greater Manchester that it had dominated for almost a century..The loss of one of Labour's safest seats, in the biggest electoral test in almost a year, piles further pressure on Starmer to prove that he should keep his job following weeks of political turmoil and calls for him to resign.The Green Party's Hannah Spencer won the contest for the vacant parliamentary seat of Gorton and Denton, with Nigel Farage's populist Reform UK party coming second, and Labour pushed into third place. The defeat comes after Starmer faced the most dangerous moment of his premiership this month when some of his lawmakers said he should resign over his decision to appoint Labour veteran Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington, despite his links to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3537(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3591(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3487 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3368(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edges up on Friday as Australian dollar was supported by growing expectations of further OCR rate hikes.A high reading on inflation this week has left markets implying an 80% chance the Reserve Bank of Australia will hike the 3.85% cash rate a quarter point in May.The next major data point is gross domestic product for the December quarter on March 4, where analysts look for a rise of 0.6%, up from 0.4% the previous quarter.Annual growth is seen holding at 2.1%, underpinned by a pickup in consumer spending and business investment.Market focus now shifts to speeches next week from RBA officials Michele Bullock, Sarah Hunter, and Andrew Hauser, which could provide further guidance on the policy outlook Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7136(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7161(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7053(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6700(Psychological level)
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged lower on Friday as the Japanese yen recovered after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said decisions on potential rate hikes at the March and April meetings would depend on incoming economic data. Overall market moves were muted, with traders awaiting fresh catalysts.Ueda reiterated that the central bank would continue raising interest rates if Japan makes progress toward its economic and inflation targets. Earlier reports indicated Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had expressed reservations about further rate hikes during a meeting with Ueda last week.The yen strengthened 0.12% against the dollar to 156.15, after touching a two-week low of 156.82 on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 156.48(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.84(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.94 (SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 154.32 (50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian shares wobbled on Friday as concerns about technology company valuations and geopolitical hotspots weighed on sentiment.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 0.36% , Hang Seng was up at 1.15 %, China A50 was down at 0.41%
Commodities Recap
Gold was largely steady on Friday as lower U.S. Treasury yields reduced the opportunity cost of holding bullion, while weak safe-haven demand kept gains limited as investors monitored U.S.–Iran negotiations.
Spot gold edged up 0.1% at $5,192.19 per ounce by 0543 GMT. The benchmark 10-year yield fell to a three-month low on the day.
Oil prices rose on Friday but remained on track for a weekly decline after OPEC+ and Iran–U.S. nuclear talks were extended, easing supply disruption fears, while investors also watched for potential output hikes from OPEC+ at its upcoming meeting.
Brent crude futures rose 36 cents, or 0.51%, to $71.11 a barrel by 0600 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $65.59, up 38 cents, or 0.58%.
