Market Roundup
• China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (Apr) 3.50%, 3.50% forecast,3.50% previous
• China PBoC Loan Prime Rate 3.00%,3.00% forecast, 3.00%previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 09:00 EU Construction Output (MoM) (Feb)-0.09% previous
• 09:00 Greek Current Account (YoY) (Feb) -1.286B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahea
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher but gains were limited on Monday as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and fading hopes for a Middle East peace deal sent investors toward safe havens.The United States said on Sunday that it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade, while Iran said it would retaliate, stoking fears about a resumption of hostilities.Tehran also said it would not participate in a second round of negotiations that the U.S. had hoped to kick off before its two-week ceasefire with Iran expires on Tuesday. Now in its eighth week, the war has created the most severe shock to energy supplies in history, sending oil prices surging because of the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles about a fifth of the world's oil shipments. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1823(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1900(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1728(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1658(April 14th low).
GBP/USD: The pound retreated against the dollar on Monday as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran intensified over the weekend. The risk-off tone followed reports that the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo vessel accused of breaching sanctions, while Tehran responded with threats of retaliation and a refusal to resume negotiations. This escalation weighed on broader market sentiment, typically negative for risk-linked currencies like the pound.Looking ahead, the pound faces a potentially volatile week driven by a packed UK economic calendar. Key releases include flash PMI surveys, labor market data, inflation figures, and retail sales—all of which will provide fresh insight into the strength of the UK economy and the Bank of England’s policy outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3591(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3655(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3532(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3499(April 14th low).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar retreated on Monday as doubts over a Middle East peace deal weighed on risk-sensitive currencies.The U.S. said Sunday it seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to breach its blockade, while Tehran vowed retaliation, raising fears of renewed conflict. Tehran said it would skip a second round of talks the U.S. hoped to begin before the two-week ceasefire expires on Tuesday. Now in its eighth week, the war has triggered an unprecedented energy shock, with oil prices surging as the Strait of Hormuz handling about 20% of global oil remains effectively closed.The Australian calendar is light this week, so the Aussie's movements are likely to be dictated by headlines from the Middle East.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7156 (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7183(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7073(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6990(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar edged higher on Monday as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and fading hopes for a Middle East peace deal sent investors toward greenback.The United States said on Sunday that it had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade, while Iran said it would retaliate, stoking fears about a resumption of hostilities.Tehran also said it would not participate in a second round of negotiations that the U.S. had hoped to kick off before its two-week ceasefire with Iran expires on Tuesday.The market's focus will also be on the Bank of Japan meeting later this month. Governor Kazuo Ueda has refrained from pre-committing to an April rate hike with the war muddling the outlook, but he left a few hawkish signs after last week's IMF meetings, suggesting tighter policy by June. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.23(SMA 20) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.73(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.07(Lower BB).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks rise even as Hormuz tensions push oil higher, fueling inflation and rate hike bets.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 0.69% , Hang Seng was up at 0.77%, China A50 was up at 0.44 %
Commodities Recap
Gold prices fell on Monday as the dollar firmed, while news the Strait of Hormuz is closed again pushed oil prices higher and revived inflation fears.
Spot gold was down 0.7% at $4,793.98 per ounce, as of 0351 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since April 13 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell 1.4% to $4,813.60.
Oil prices jumped more than 6% in early Monday trading on fears that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran could collapse after the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely halted.
Brent crude futures advanced $5.51, or 6.1%, to $95.89 a barrel by 0752 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up $5.46, or 6.5%, at $89.31.
