Market Roundup
• Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.9%, 2.9% forecast, 2.8% previous
•Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.5%, 2.4% forecast, 2.4% previous
•Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Jul) 2.8%, -0.1% previous
•Eurozone HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Jul) 2.2%, 2.1% previous
•Eurozone CPI n.s.a. (Jul) 103.22, 103.02 previous
•Eurozone Core CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.0%, 0.2% previous
•Eurozone HICP ex Energy and Food (MoM) (Jul) 0.0%, 0.2% previous
•Germany Unemployment Rate (Jul) 6.4%, 6.3% forecast, 6.3% previous
•Germany Unemployment Change (Jul) 6K, 5K forecast, -1K previous
•Germany Unemployment n.s.a. (Jul) 3.007M, 2.936M previous
•Germany Unemployment (Jul) 2.993M, 2.984M previous
•Canada GDP (MoM) (May) 0.3%, 0.1% forecast, 0.5% previous
•U.S. Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q2) 0.9%, 0.8% forecast, 0.9% previous
•U.S. Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q2) 0.9%, 0.8% previous
•U.S. Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q2) 1.0%, 1.2% previous
•Canada GDP (MoM) (Jun) 0.2%, 0.3% previous
•U.S. Chicago PMI (Jul) 57.6, 56.0 forecast, 56.7 previous
•U.S. Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Jul) 3.3%, 3.3% forecast, 3.3% previous
•U.S. Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Jul) 4.2%, 4.2% forecast, 4.6% previous
•U.S. Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jul) 55.4, 54.0 forecast, 50.7 previous
•U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul) 55.2, 54.4 forecast, 49.5 previous
U.S. Michigan Current Conditions (Jul) 54.8, 54.9 forecast, 47.7 previous
• Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•14:00 Canada Budget Balance (YoY) (May) -55.28B previous
•14:00 Canada Budget Balance (May) -29.73B previous
•18:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 450 previous
•18:00 U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 587 previous
• Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro slipped lower on Friday as the dollar rebounded as investors assessed Middle East developments their potential impact on the U.S. interest rate outlook. A drone strike that sparked fires on two gas vessels in Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta has raised a new threat to shipping through the Suez Canal, one of the last major export routes available to Saudi oil amid the expanding U.S.-Iran war. The strait, which usually carries about a fifth of global shipments of crude oil and liquefied natural gas, has been a focal point for oil markets as it has been largely blockaded since the February 28 launch of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1535(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1600(psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1442(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1422(SMA 20).
GBP/USD : Sterling slipped on Friday as the dollar regained ground as investors assessed developments in the Middle East and their potential impact on the U.S. interest rate outlook. On Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting, while U.S. central bank chief Kevin Warsh vowed to bring inflation down, leaving markets confused.Traders are now pricing in a 67% chance of a rate hike in September, versus an over 80% chance a week before, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.Data on Thursday showed U.S. inflation slowed in June, but the easing was likely temporary as renewed hostilities in the Middle East lifted oil prices. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3474(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3543(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3414(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3395(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar slipped lower on Friday as U.S. dollar regained footing as investors pared back rate hike bets after the Federal Reserve meeting this week. On the data front, Australia’s final demand Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 1.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026, accelerating sharply from a 0.4% rise in the previous quarter and exceeding market expectations for a 0.3% increase.On an annual basis, Australia's final demand Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 3.6% in the second quarter of 2026, up from a 3.0% rise in the previous quarter. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6971(SMA20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6984(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6917 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6899(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped on Friday as investors digested the Bank of Japan l interest rates decision. At the two-day policy meeting that ended on Friday, the BOJ kept short-term interest rates steady at 1% in a widely expected move after a hike to the 31-year-high level just last month.The Bank of Japan signaled the possibility of further hikes, warning for the first time that underlying inflation could rise above its target.The central bank also pointed to rising inflation pressures from strong global AI-related demand and noted that concerns over the economic impact of the Middle East conflict were easing.The BOJ’s decision followed Japan’s yen-buying, dollar-selling intervention in New York markets on Thursday, though the move failed to provide a lasting boost to the yen as traders continued to test Tokyo’s commitment to supporting the currency. Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.88 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 161.85(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 158.6(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 157.30 (April 17th low).
Equities Recap
European shares climbed to a record high on Friday, driven by renewed demand for technology stocks worldwide, while strong corporate earnings supported markets despite a week marked by central bank decisions and Middle East tensions.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.42 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.14 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.13 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold fell 2% on Friday as the U.S. dollar rebounded from a more than one-month low reached in the previous session, although the precious metal remained on track for its first monthly gain in five months after softer inflation data dampened expectations of further U.S. rate hikes.
Spot gold was down 1.8% at $4,027.75 per ounce at 09:59 a.m. EDT (1359 GMT), after falling 2% earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for August delivery dropped 1.9% to $4,025.10.
Oil prices rose on Friday and were set for a monthly gain as reports of tankers reversing course in the Strait of Hormuz prompted traders to reassess shipping risks through the vital waterway.
Brent futures were up $1.31, or 1.47%, at $90.34 a barrel by 1329 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up $1.95, or 2.33%, to $85.54 a barrel.
