Market Roundup
• New Zealand Trade Balance (MoM) (Feb) -257M, -740M forecast, -627M previous
• New Zealand Trade Balance (YoY) (Feb) -3,000M forecast, -2,300M previous
• New Zealand Exports (Feb) 6.63B, 6.10B previous
• New Zealand Imports (Feb) 6.89B, 6.73B previous
• China PBoC Loan Prime Rate (Mar) 3.50%, 3.50% forecast,3.50% previous
• China PBoC Loan Prime Rate 3.00%, 3.00% forecast, 3.00% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 09:00 EU Current Account (Jan) 17.2B forecast, 14.6B previous
• 09:00 EU Current Account n.s.a. (Jan) 34.6B previous
• 09:00 Italian Trade Balance EU (Jan) -2.45B previous
•09:00 Italian Trade Balance (Jan) 5.650B forecast, 6.037B previous
•10:00 EU Trade Balance (Jan) 12.8B forecast, 12.6B previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No events ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Friday as U.S. dollar firmed as hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve dampened hopes for near-term interest rate cuts. Soaring energy prices have disrupted the global rate outlook, leaving the Federal Reserve as the only major central bank not expected to hike this year.Before the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, markets expected two Fed rate cuts in 2026, but now even one cut looks unlikely. The European Central Bank kept rates on hold on Thursday but warned of inflation driven by energy prices and sources told Reuters policymakers are likely to start discussing hikes next month - a contrast with the Fed's wait-and-see approach.Investors swept away expectations for a long hold on European rates at 2% to price in a hike by June. The euro was marginally softer at $1.1569 in the Asia morning, is up 1.4% for the week. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1546(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1659 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1472(March 17th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1421(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The pound edged lower on Friday as dollar U.S. dollar firmed as hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve dampened hopes for near-term interest rate cuts. The dollar has emerged as one of the clearest "safe-haven" winners, strengthening over 2% so far this month. Meanwhile, the Fed kept rates steady on Wednesday, echoing major developed market central banks, and indicated that inflation could rise.Interest rate futures show traders see little chance of a Fed reduction this year, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Meanwhile, The Bank of England kept rates on hold as well, but set off one of the sharpest ever routs in short-dated gilts by saying it was ready to act and markets, which had seen rates drifting lower, have priced 80 basis points of hikes by year's end. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3373(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3417(SMA 20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3260(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3208(23.6%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian steadied on Friday as surging oil prices amid the expanding Middle East war fueled inflation concerns and raised the risk of further RBA tightening.Hawkish signals from central banks boosted bets on further rate hikes in Australia and a quicker return to tightening in New Zealand.The RBA has raised rates to 4.10%, with markets pricing a 56% chance of a hike to 4.35% in May and a potential peak near 4.85%.On the data front, Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed net employment rose 48,900 in February from January, when it rose a revised 26,000. That was well above market forecasts of a 20,000 gain.The jobless rate rose to 4.3%, after holding at 4.1% for two months, as the participation rate climbed to 66.9%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7158(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7197(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7066(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6996(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The US dollar strengthened on Friday as markets reassessed global inflation risks alongside expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a relatively hawkish stance for longer.Geopolitical tensions remain a key driver, with the U.S. and Israel signaling restraint on further attacks targeting energy infrastructure, while Iran warned it would not tolerate additional escalation—keeping markets cautious.Energy supply concerns have eased slightly, as diplomatic and policy efforts aim to stabilize oil prices, reducing immediate inflation fears but not eliminating longer-term risks. The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday but retained a tightening bias, cautioning that rising oil prices amid the Middle East conflict could intensify inflation pressures.Governor Kazuo Ueda noted that policymakers are increasingly focused on upside inflation risks rather than potential growth downside, reinforcing expectations of a near-term rate hike. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.48(38.2%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.67(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 157.24 (50% fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks were mixed on Friday amid volatile oil prices driven by Middle East tensions, while China kept lending rates unchanged.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 3.38% , Hang Seng was down at 0.58 %, China A50 was up at 071%
Commodities Recap
Oil prices eased on Friday while bonds were nursing losses, after global central bankers sounded the alarm on inflation risks stemming from the ongoing war in the Middle East that has sent markets into a tailspin.
Brent crude futures were down 3% at $105.43 a barrel on Friday while U.S. crude fell 2.2% to $94 per barrel,
Gold prices rose on Friday on technical buying, but were headed for a third consecutive weekly decline, pressured by a firm U.S. dollar and as a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve dampened hopes for near-term interest rate cuts.
Spot gold rose 1.1% to $4,700.97 per ounce as of 0257 GMT, rebounding from a near two-month low hit in the previous session.
