Market Roundup
• Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Apr): -12.5%, 1.2% previous
• Australia NAB Business Confidence (Mar): -29, 0 previous
• Australia NAB Business Survey (Mar): 6, 6 previous
• China Exports (YoY) (Mar): 2.5%, 8.3% forecast, 21.8% previous
• China Imports (YoY) (Mar): 27.8%, 11.1% forecast, 19.8% previous
• China Trade Balance (USD) (Mar): 51.13B, 107.20B forecast, 213.62B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 11:00 US NFIB Small Business Optimism (Mar) 97.8 forecast,98.8 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 11:00 US IMF Meetings
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro strengthened on Tuesday as dollar eased as markets weighed supply risks from a U.S. blockade of Iranian shipping in the Strait of Hormuz against hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran.U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. military began a blockade of ships leaving Iran's ports on Monday, but added Iran had been in touch and wanted to make a deal with Washington despite a tense weekend meeting in Islamabad.The series of comments "has brought some relief to the markets, as it has renewed the possibility of a diplomatic resolution. U.S. crude futures CLc1 were down more than $2 in early Asian trade at $96.99 a barrel. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1841(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1900(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1768(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1756(Daily low).
GBP/USD: The pound strengthened on Tuesday as the greenback eased as investors banked on a resolution to the Middle East war even as the U.S. blocked Iran's ports after the collapse of peace talks over the weekend. The U.S. military began a blockade of Iran's ports, angering Tehran and adding uncertainty around the crucial waterway, though shipping data showed a U.S.-sanctioned Chinese tanker passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Trump has said Washington would block Iranian vessels and any ships that paid such tolls and that any Iranian "fast-attack" ships that went near the blockade would be eliminated. Oil prices slid as expectations for further dialogue to end the war outweighed concerns over supply disruptions, leaving Brent crude futures down 1.5% at $97.90 a barrel. U.S. crude futures fell 2.3% to $96.78 per barrel. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3531(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3599(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3499(Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3385(61.8%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Tuesday after surveys showed a sharp drop in business and consumer confidence.Australia’s business and consumer confidence plunged as the Iran war triggered a global oil shock, raising recession risks and complicating the policy outlook as officials weigh further rate hikes to curb inflation.A survey by National Australia Bank showed business confidence plunged 29 points to -29 in March, marking the second-largest monthly drop on record, with declines of similar scale last seen during the Global Financial Crisis and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. A separate survey showed consumer sentiment fell 12.5% to 80.1 in April, the lowest in over two years, while an index of appetite for big-ticket purchases dropped 15% as households tightened spending. The surveys heightened concerns that simultaneous supply and demand shocks could push the Australian economy toward stagflation, echoing warnings from a central banker. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7068 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7093(April 11 t high ).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6980(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6896(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Tuesday as the dollar weakened, driven by growing expectations that a U.S.–Iran agreement could eventually be reached.U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. military began a blockade of ships leaving Iran's ports on Monday, but added that Iran had been in touch and wanted to make a deal.The series of comments "has brought some relief to the markets, as it has renewed the possibility of a diplomatic resolution. The yen found added support from potential intervention risks as USD/JPY tested the 160 level, previously associated with action by Japanese policymakers.Meanwhile, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda highlighted the importance of monitoring the economic impact of the Iran conflict, cautioning that higher oil prices may dampen Japan’s growth prospects. Immediate resistance can be seen at 159.86(Daily high) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.26(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 158.78(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian equities advanced, while oil and the safe-haven dollar weakened as optimism grew over ongoing U.S.-Iran dialogue despite recent geopolitical tensions.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 2.44% , Hang Seng was up at 0.82%, China A50 was up at 1.21 %
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose on Tuesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and easing inflation concerns as oil prices declined on hopes of further U.S.-Iran peace talks.
Spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,775.20 per ounce, as of 0755 GMT. U.S. gold futures for June delivery rose 0.7% to $4,798.40.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday as indications of potential talks to end the U.S.–Israeli war with Iran eased supply concerns linked to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures edged 62 cents lower, or around 0.6%, to $98.74 at 0828 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $2.30, or 2.3%, to $96.78.
