Market Roundup
• Australia Unemployment Rate (Jun) 4.4%, 4.4% forecast, 4.4% previous
• Australia Employment Change (Jun) 76.3K, 16.4K forecast, 44.0K previous
• Australia Full Employment Change (Jun) 29.3K, 7.2K previous
• Australia Participation Rate (Jun) 67.0%, 66.7% forecast, 66.7% previous
• France Car Registration (MoM) (Jun) 46.9%, -7.1% previous
• France Car Registration (YoY) (Jun) 11.4%, 3.7% previous
• Germany Car Registration (YoY) (Jun) 15.7%, 0.1% previous
• Germany Car Registration (MoM) (Jun) 23.8%, -3.9% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•13:15 Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul) 2.40% forecast, 2.40% previous
•13:15 Eurozone ECB Deposit Facility Rate (Jul) 2.25% forecast, 2.25% previous
•13:15 Eurozone ECB Marginal Lending Facility (Jul) 2.65 forecast, 2.65% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• 13:15 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher on Thursday as investors awaited the European Central Bank’s policy decision later on Thursday. The ECB is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, while leaving the door open for a potential September hike as rising energy prices threaten to add fresh inflationary pressure.The central bank raised rates in June and signalled that further tightening could follow, but a series of softer data on inflation, wages, economic activity and inflation expectations has reduced the urgency for an immediate follow-up move. Markets are now pricing in two to three additional rate hikes, with the first fully priced in by October and the second expected by April next year.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1497(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1526(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1437(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1324(23.6%fib).
GBP/USD :The pound was little changed on Thursday as traders shifted focus to next week's Federal Reserve meeting for clues on the timing of potential interest rate hikes.The Fed meets next week, when the central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, although futures markets are broadly positioned for at least one rate hike by year end.Interest rate sensitive two-year U.S. Treasury yields climbed to a 17-month high as rising oil prices stoked concerns that renewed energy disruptions could reignite inflation and increase the odds of Fed interest rate hikes. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3454(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3485(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3296(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Thursday after Australia's June labour market data significantly exceeded expectations, prompting markets to increase bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia will need to raise interest rates again to keep inflation in check. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed employment jumped by 76,300 in June from May, marking the largest monthly increase since April last year. The data comfortably exceeded forecasts for a 15,300 rise and lifted the annual pace of employment growth to 1.7% from 1.0%, underscoring the strength of Australia's labour market.The jobless rate stayed at 4.4% as expected thanks to a rise in the participation rate to a one-year high of 67.0%.Market attention now shifts to Australia's second-quarter CPI report due next Wednesday, which is likely to be the decisive factor in shaping the central bank's next policy move. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6952 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6875(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6811(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar eased slightly against the yen on Thursday as investors continued to assess the risk of Japanese intervention and the possibility of faster Bank of Japan rate hikes. The yen weakened to 163.23 per dollar on Tuesday, its lowest level since December 1986, as investors adjusted to the evolving policy landscape under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration, which has faced concerns that it could pressure the BOJ to delay further tightening.Markets are currently pricing in around 27 basis points of additional BOJ rate hikes this year. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has warned that authorities would take decisive action if needed to address excessive yen weakness. Tokyo previously intervened in currency markets in April and May when the yen breached the 160-per-dollar level. Immediate resistance can be seen at 163.26(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.67(Higher BB) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 162.16(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 160.61(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks gained on Thursday as major U.S. tech firms announced higher capital spending plans, boosting prospects for regional chipmakers, while Middle East tensions pushed oil prices to six-week highs.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 0.39% , South Korea’s KOSPI was down at 4.40%, China A50 was up at 0.22%
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped on Thursday after hitting a two-week high in the previous session, as rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions and expectations for next week's Federal Reserve meeting weighed on the metal.
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Spot gold slipped 0.6% to $4,103.39 per ounce by 0713 GMT, having climbed to its highest since July 7 at $4,165.87 on Wednesday. U.S. gold futures for August delivery fell 1.1% to $4,106.40.
Oil prices rose for a fifth day as Middle East tensions and attacks on tankers raised concerns over global supply disruptions.
Brent crude futures rose $2.42, or 2.6%, to $96.49 by 0640 GMT, the highest since June 8, having settled up more than $3 at $94.07 in the previous session, just shy of a six-week high.
