Market Roundup
• Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar): -0.5%, 1.0% forecast, -2.0% previous
• Japan Large Scale Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar): 2.0%, 2.0% previous
• Japan Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar): 1.7%, 0.9% forecast, -0.1% previous
• Japan Industrial Production Forecast 2M Ahead (MoM) (May): 2.2%, 3.3% previous
• Japan Industrial Production Forecast 1M Ahead (MoM) (Apr): 2.1%, 3.8% previous
• Japan Large Retailers' Sales (MoM) (Mar): 1.3%, 0.8% forecast, -2.0% previous
• China Manufacturing PMI (Apr): 50.3, 50.1 forecast, 50.4 previous
• China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr): 49.4, 49.9 forecast, 50.1 previous
• China Composite PMI (Apr): 50.1, 50.5 previous
• Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Mar): 0.7%, 0.6% forecast, 0.6% previous
• Australia Housing Credit (Mar): 0.6%, 0.6% previous
• Australia Import Price Index (QoQ) (Q1): 0.1%, 0.4% forecast, 0.9% previous
• Australia Export Price Index (QoQ) (Q1): 0.5%, 3.2% previous
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr): 52.2, 50.9 forecast, 50.8 previous
• Japan Household Confidence (Apr): 32.2, 32.8 forecast, 33.3 previous
• Japan Housing Starts (YoY) (Mar): -29.3%, -28.7% forecast, -4.9% previous
• Japan Construction Orders (YoY) (Mar): -14.4%, 42.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 10:00 Euro Area CPI (YoY) (Apr): 3.0% forecast, 2.6% previous
• 10:00 Euro Area Unemployment Rate (Mar): 6.2% forecast, 6.2% previous
• 10:00 Euro Area GDP (QoQ) (Q1): 0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous
• 10:00 Euro Area GDP (YoY) (Q1): 0.9% forecast, 1.2% previous
• 10:00 Euro Area Core CPI (YoY) (Apr): 2.2% forecast, 2.3% previous
• 10:00 Euro Area CPI (MoM) (Apr): 1.3% previous
• 10:00 Euro Area HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) (Apr): 2.2% previous
• 10:00 Euro Area CPI n.s.a (Apr): 101.99 previous
• 10:00 Euro Area Core CPI (MoM) (Apr): 0.8% previous
• 10:00 Euro Area HICP ex Energy & Food (MoM) (Apr): 0.7% previous
•12:00 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (Apr): 3.75% forecast, 3.75% previous
•12:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Cut (Apr): 0 forecast, 0 previous
•12:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Hike (Apr): 1 forecast, 0 previous
•12:00 UK BoE MPC Vote Unchanged (Apr): 8 forecast,, 9 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•12:00 UK BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro weakened to a near three-week low on Thursday as hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and a surge in oil to four-year highs intensified inflation fears.Brent crude futures rose to their highest since March 2022, driven by anxiety over further supply disruptions after a report the U.S. is considering military action against Iran to break the deadlock in ceasefire negotiations.That came on top of a hawkish tilt at Federal Reserve, where Chair Jerome Powell closed out his eight years with rates on hold amid growing inflation concerns. The Fed's 8–4 decision to leave the rate unchanged was its most divided since 1992, drawing three dissents from officials who no longer think the bank should communicate a bias towards easing.The dollar index climbed 0.2% to a high of 99.06, the strongest level since April 13.The euro weakened to a near three-week low of $1.1661. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1703(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1775(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1662(61.8%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1583(Japn 19th low).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher but gains were limited as investors attention turned towards Bank of England rate decision on Thursday.The Bank of England is expected to keep rates unchanged this week despite inflation staying above target in 2026, as policymakers wait to assess risks from the energy crunch.Markets expect the BoE to hold rates at 3.75% on Thursday, after Governor Andrew Bailey signalled that a near-term rate hike is unlikely. Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) policymakers are expected to vote 8–1 to keep rates unchanged at the April meeting, following a unanimous hold in March. After a unanimous decision to hold rates at 3.75% last month, the MPC could be more divided this week amid rising inflation risks and stronger-than-expected business activity in April. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3591(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3655(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3450(SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3392(April 13th low).
AUD/USD: Australian dollar edged higher on Thursday as markets reposition ahead of the May 5 policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia.Expectations for further tightening have strengthened, with futures markets now pricing in roughly an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike.This hawkish repricing reflects ongoing concerns about inflation persistence in Australia and has helped provide a modest underpinning to the Aussie.On the global front, the Federal Open Market Committee left the federal funds rate unchanged while maintaining an easing bias. However, the presence of three dissenting votes highlights increasing divisions within the committee, suggesting uncertainty around the future policy path.At the same time, global factors remain highly influential. The ongoing impasse in the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt supply expectations, driving oil prices higher amid renewed geopolitical tension. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7216(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7278(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7113(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.7029(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar dipped on Thursday as yen firmed following suspected intervention by Japanese authorities. The move comes as officials appear increasingly concerned about the yen’s sharp depreciation. Japan’s Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, reiterated Tokyo’s willingness to take “decisive action” against excessive Yen weakness earlier this week, and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) assured that it will continue hiking rates as soon as geopolitical uncertainty ebbs.The Japanese currency has fallen more than 2% since the war began on February 28 and investors have built the biggest short yen position in nearly two years in a bet that neither rate hikes nor risk of intervention will come to its rescue.The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday, but in its most divided decision since 1992 noted rising concerns about inflation in a policy statement that drew three dissents from officials who no longer feel the U.S. central bank should communicate a bias towards lowering borrowing costs.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.43(Higher BB) an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.60(23.6%fib) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.42(SMA 20) a break below could take the pair towards 158.98(38.2%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian shares fell on Thursday as oil prices surged to four-year highs amid fears of renewed U.S. military action against Iran, dampening investor sentiment.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 0.98% , Hang Seng was down at 1.40%, China A50 was down at 0.08 %
Commodities Recap
Gold edged higher on Thursday as dip-buying emerged, but remained on track for a second consecutive monthly decline as elevated oil prices sustained inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates.
Spot gold was up 1% at $4,588.09 per ounce, as of 0736 GMT, after falling to its lowest point since March 31 in the last session. Bullion was down about 1.7% so far this month.
Brent crude surged to a fresh four-year high on Thursday amid escalating concerns that the U.S.-Iran conflict could intensify, raising fears of prolonged supply disruptions from the Middle East that may weigh on global economic growth.
Brent crude futures rose $4.28, or 3.63%, to $122.31 a barrel as of 0659 GMT, after touching an intraday high of $126.41, the loftiest since March 9, 2022. The front-month June contract, up for a ninth day, expires on Thursday. The more active July contract was at $112.49, up $2.05, or 1.86%.
