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Market Roundup
•Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Aug) 6.0%, 4.1% previous
•New Zealand RBNZ Offshore Holdings (Jul) 56.90%, 55.80% previous
•Japan 5-Year JGB Auction 2.163%, 2.020% previous
•UK Claimant Count Change (Jul) -11.0K, 16.5K forecast, -6.4K previous
•UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Jun) 83K, 147K previous
•UK Unemployment Rate (Jun) 4.9%, 4.8% forecast, 4.9% previous
•UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jun) 4.1%, 4.0% forecast, 4.4% previous
•UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Jun) 3.5%, 3.4% forecast, 3.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•10:00 German ZEW Current Conditions (Aug) -68.8 forecast, -77.6 previous
•10:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug) 30.1 forecast, 26.3 previous
•10:00 EuroZone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug) 25.9 forecast, 23.4 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Data Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro eased against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as traders walked back expectations of near-term monetary tightening, although the imminent threat of an escalation in the Middle East war left sentiment fragile.Data in the past few weeks have pointed to a softer U.S. economy, including unexpected job losses last month and mild inflation readings, leading investors to scale back expectations of a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve.Traders expect a 35% chance of a rate increase at the Fed's September meeting, compared with 52.2% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. They are also no longer fully pricing in a hike by the end of the year. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1633(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1655(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1525(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1497(SMA 20).
GBP/USD: The pound eased on Tuesday after UK labour market data showed signs of slowing in the second quarter.Britain's labour market cooled somewhat in the second quarter, which was marked by slowing earnings growth in the private sector and the smallest number of vacancies in more than five years, official data showed on Tuesday.Private sector regular earnings watched by the BoE as a gauge of domestic inflation pressure rose by 2.8% in the annual terms during the three months to June, marking the weakest growth since the three months to October 2020. BoE's own forecast published last month, sterling fell slightly on the data, which also showed the unemployment rate holding at 4.9%, against expectations in a Reuters poll of economists for a drop to 4.8%.The number of open job vacancies fell to 707,000 in the three months to July, down from 711,000 in the three months to July, the Office for National Statistics said.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3602(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3648(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3503(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3427(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar eased against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as threat of an escalation in the Middle East war left sentiment fragile.Geopolitical tensions remain a key risk, with Iran adopting a more aggressive stance as U.S.-Iran peace negotiations stall.Brent crude climbed above $91 a barrel as renewed concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz lifted the oil risk premium.RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser is scheduled to participate in a fireside chat in Brisbane on Wednesday.Australia’s July employment report is due Thursday, with Reuters economists expecting employment to rise by 15,000 and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.4%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7126(Higher BB%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7204(May 29th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7080 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 07034(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar strengthened on Tuesday as a stalemate in the Middle East conflict stoked inflation worries and reinforced speculation about a near-term Bank of Japan interest-rate increase.Bank of Japan meets next month, where the central bank is set to raise interest rates and is considering hiking more aggressively after thatsaw the highest level of demand since June 2025 as the higher yield on offer attracted buyers.Comments from BOJ officials have turned increasingly hawkish in recent days, and Reuters and other media reported that the policy board may pursue more aggressive tightening than it has to this point..Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.20 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 160.67(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.16(50%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 158.63 (Aug 14th low).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks dipped on Tuesday as a U.S.-Iran truce expired and Tehran threatened to adopt a "fully offensive" military posture.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down by 2.44% , KOSPI was down at 1.55 %, China A50 was down at 0.26%
Commodities Recap
Gold fell on Tuesday, pressured by higher Treasury yields and oil prices, while traders awaited minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's July policy meeting for clues on the outlook for interest rates.
Spot gold was down 0.4% to $4,397.42 per ounce, as of 0624 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.5% to $4,452.90.
Oil prices settled more than $2 higher on Monday as stalled U.S.-Iran diplomacy and escalating tensions raised concerns over global supply disruptions.
Brent settled at $90.87 a barrel, while WTI closed at $84.50, with risks around the Strait of Hormuz adding to market pressure.
