Market Roundup
•EU Sentix Investor Confidence (Aug) 0.9, -0.7 forecast, -3.1 previous
•Greece Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun) 1.1%, 3.7% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 13:00 France French 12-Month BTF Auction 2.738% previous
• 13:00 France French 3-Month BTF Auction 2.448% previous
• 13:00 France French 6-Month BTF Auction 2.585% previous
• 15:00 US CB Employment Trends Index (Jul) 106.69 previous
• 16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 3.750% previous
• 16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 3.855% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro eased on Monday as The key event for markets this week is the U.S. inflation reading for July on Wednesday, which will impact Fed officials' thinking on rates. A consensus estimate calls for the core CPI to rise 0.2% month-on-month in July, while the annual rate is seen moderating to 2.5% from 2.6% in June. Producer price data on Thursday and retail sales figures on Friday will further inform the outlook for inflation. The euro was little changed at$1.1555, hovering near its strongest level since mid-June. Oil prices were little changed, with Brent crude futures trading around $84.49 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate Crude traded at $79 a barrel .Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1565(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1600(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1517(Aug 8th low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1472(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD : The British pound was little changed against the U.S. dollar on Monday as markets awaited growth data later in the week and updates on talks in the Middle East to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.Monthly growth figures, due for release on Thursday, are expected to show that the economy remained resilient in June, with the month's retail sales unexpectedly strong due to spending linked to the World Cup and hot weather.Oil prices rose slightly on Monday, due to continued uncertainty about the reopening of the strait. Iran said it was nearing a deal with Oman defining new shipping lanes but that the U.S. must meet other conditions.Expectations for Bank of England policy settings have tended to fluctuate with energy price movements, with higher oil prices and the feed through to inflation expected to lead to tighter monetary policy. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3528(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3556(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3440(Aug 7th low), a break below could take the pair towards1.3407(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged lower on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision.Markets broadly expect the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged on Tuesday, with investors focused on signals about the future policy path.The RBA has raised interest rates three times this year, fully reversing the monetary policy easing delivered in 2025.Economic growth has slowed, inflation has undershot expectations, and the housing market has weakened more than the central bank had anticipated.Markets will focus on Australia’s Q2 Wage Price Index on Wednesday, followed later by the U.S. July inflation report, which could provide fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7076(Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7104(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7006 (SMA 20), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6975(50%fib).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed against yen on Monday as renewed tensions in the Middle East supported demand for the safe-haven dollar.Geopolitical risks increased after Yemen’s Houthis reportedly attacked a Saudi refinery and the Red Sea port city of Mocha, raising concerns over potential disruptions to regional energy supplies. U.S. crude prices climbed around 1%, providing additional support to the dollar and helping USD/JPY gradually advance to 158.30.Despite the yen’s recent rebound, Japan’s fiscal concerns and expectations for only gradual monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan continue to limit sustained JPY gains.At the same time, Japan’s recent currency intervention appears to have been aimed primarily at slowing the yen’s decline rather than forcing a sustained appreciation in the currency. Immediate resistance can be seen at 158.82 (Aug 10th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 159.49(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 157.50(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 157.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
European shares held near record highs on Monday as Middle East tensions kept oil prices elevated, with investors bracing for a busy week of economic data.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.23percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.11 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.09 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold edged lower on Monday after hitting a seven-week high in the previous session, pressured by a stronger dollar as investors awaited inflation data for clues on the central bank’s policy outlook..
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $4,332.68 per ounce, as of 1122 GMT. Prices hit their highest since June 17 on Friday after weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls data.
Oil prices jumped almost 2% on Monday after Iran insisted that the United States must satisfy several demands before the Strait of Hormuz can reopen.
Brent crude futures were up $1.40, or 1.7%, at $84.95 a barrel by 1218 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up $1.33, or 1.7%, at $79.51.
