Market Roundup
• Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Jul) 4.1%, -2.9% previous
• Australia NAB Business Confidence (Jun) -5, -14 previous
• Australia NAB Business Survey (Jun) 3, 3 previous
•China Trade Balance (USD) (Jun) 125.62B, 119.50B forecast, 105.43B previous
•China Imports (YoY) (Jun) 36.0%, 24.0% forecast, 27.4% previous
•China Exports (YoY) (Jun) 27.0%, 18.2% forecast, 19.4% previous
•China Exports (Jun) 20.80M, 13.80M previous
•China Imports (Jun) 29.40M, 21.50M previous
•China Trade Balance (Jun) 859.05B, 810.00B forecast, 723.98B previous
•Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (May) 0.1%, 0.5% forecast, 0.5% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 07:00 German WPI (MoM) (Jun) 0.5% forecast, -0.6% previous
• 07:00 German WPI (YoY) (Jun) 5.9% previous
•07:30 Swiss PPI (MoM) (Jun) -0.5% forecast, -0.4% previous
•07:30 Swiss PPI (YoY) (Jun)-1.8% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro edged higher against dollar on Tuesday amid caution over possible intervention and after policymakers' comments on state pension fund allocations.Inflation risks remain in the spotlight with the release of U.S. June CPI data on Tuesday, June PPI gauges the following day, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first semiannual testimony before Congress.Concerns over escalating tensions between the United States and Iran returned to the fore, with President Donald Trump saying on Monday Washington was reinstating a naval blockade on Tehran and would ensure the Strait of Hormuz remained open for a fee following fresh exchanges of missile and drone strikes.The euro was up 0.1% against the dollar at $1.1392. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1475(SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1495(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1368(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1291(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher against dollar on Tuesday as investors were cautious. awaited key U.S. inflation data. Investors will closely watch June U.S. CPI data due later in the day for fresh clues on inflation and the Fed's policy path, with PPI data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first semi-annual testimony before Congress this week also in focus.The U.S. central bank may need to raise interest rates "in the near term" if coming data show inflation continuing well above the 2% target, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday.Traders have ramped up bets on a September U.S. interest rate hike, with CME Group's FedWatch Tool showing the probability rising to around 76% from 57% a week ago.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3433(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3485(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3343(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3296(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar edged higher on Tuesday as market sentiment showed tentative signs of improvement despite U.S.-Iran tensions.U.S.-Iran tensions resurfaced after President Donald Trump announced a renewed naval blockade on Iran following fresh missile and drone attacks. U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged heavy missile and drone strikes over the weekend, with Iran targeting U.S. facilities across the Gulf and saying it had again closed the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. CPI data is due for release later on Tuesday, followed by comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who will deliver the central bank's semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress.Meanwhile, further rate hikes remain possible, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expected to raise the cash rate as early as August as inflation risks persist.The Australian central bank has raised interest rates three times this year, lifting the cash rate by a total of 75 basis points to 4.35%. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6952 (SMA 20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7000(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6875(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6811(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar hovered near a 40-year high against the yen on Tuesday as traders remained on alert for possible intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen briefly strengthened after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Tokyo could review state pension fund asset allocations if market conditions change sharply. Health Minister Kenichiro Ueno said the government would assess the GPIF's asset allocation if necessary but downplayed the likelihood of any near-term changes. The yen and Japanese government bonds rallied on Friday after Katayama said the government would encourage pension funds, including the GPIF, to increase investments in domestic financial assets. Immediate resistance can be seen at 162.73(23.6%fib) an upside break can trigger rise towards 163.00(Psychological level) .On the downside, immediate support is seen at 160.81(38.2%fib) a break below could take the pair towards 159.58(50%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian stocks fell on Tuesday after President Donald Trump announced the reinstatement of a U.S. blockade on Iranian shipping and a 20% transit fee for cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 1.76% , KOSPI was up at 8.96 %, China A50 was down at 0.63%
Commodities Recap
Gold rose on Tuesday after touching a two-week low earlier in the session, as investors awaited key U.S. inflation data while escalating U.S.-Iran tensions lifted oil prices and reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Spot gold was up 0.5% at $4,021.62 per ounce by 0440 GMT, recovering from its lowest level since July 1. U.S. gold futures for August delivery gained 0.6% at $4,028.
Oil prices rose nearly 3% on Tuesday to a four-week high after the U.S. reinstated its naval blockade on Iran, escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and raising concerns over global energy supplies.
Brent crude futures were last up $1.50, or 1.8%, to $84.80 per barrel at 0330 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.70, or 2.2%, to $79.84 a barrel.
