Market Roundup
•Japan Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) 1.9%, 1.8% forecast, 1.6% previous
•Japan CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (Jul) 0.3%, 0.0% previous
•Japan CPI (YoY) (Jul) 1.3%, 1.1% previous
•Japan Unemployment Rate (Jun) 2.5%, 2.5% forecast, 2.5% previous
•Japan Jobs/Applications Ratio (Jun) 1.18, 1.17% forecast, 1.17 previous
•Japan Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Jul) 2.0%, 1.7% previous
•Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun) 1.3%, 1.0% forecast, 0.1% previous
•Japan Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) 0.5%, 3.1% forecast, 5.0% previous
•Japan Large Scale Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun) -1.0%, 5.0% previous
•Japan Industrial Production Forecast 2M Ahead (MoM) (Aug) 4.5%, 0.0% previous
•Japan Industrial Production Forecast 1M Ahead (MoM) (Jul) 1.2%, 3.7% previous
•Japan Large Retailers' Sales (MoM) (Jun) -4.1%, 1.7% previous
•China Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 49.2, 50.1% forecast, 50.3 previous
•Australia PPI (YoY) (Q2) 3.6%, 3.0% previous
•Australia PPI (QoQ) (Q2) 1.3%, 0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous
•China Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul) 49.0, 50.0 forecast, 50.2 previous
•Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Jun) 0.8%, 0.6% forecast, 0.7% previous
•Australia Housing Credit (Jun) 0.6%, 0.5% previous
• Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
• 07:45 France CPI (MoM) (Jul) 0.3% forecast, -0.3% previous
• 07:45 France HICP (MoM) (Jul) 0.3%forecast, -0.3% previous
• 07:45 France PPI (YoY) (Jun) 3.0% previous
• 07:45 France CPI (YoY) (Jul) 1.8% previous
• 07:45 France PPI (MoM) (Jun) -0.3% previous
• 07:45 France CPI NSA (MoM) (Jul) 0.3% forecast, -0.3% previous
• 07:45 France CPI NSA (YoY) (Jul) 1.8% forecast, 1.8% previous
• 07:45 France Inflation (YoY) (Jul) 1.7% previous
• 07:45 France HICP (YoY) (Jul) 2.1% forecast, 2.0% previous
•09:00 Germany Unemployment Rate (Jul) 6.3% forecast, 6.3% previous
•09:00 Germany Unemployment Change (Jul) 5K, -1K previous
•09:00 Germany Unemployment n.s.a. (Jul) 2.936M previous
•09:00 Germany Unemployment (Jul) 2.984M previous
• Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro eased from its overnight high of 1.1537 as the dollar recovered as investors assessing Middle East developments. A drone strike that sparked fires on two gas vessels in Egypt's Mediterranean port of Damietta has raised a new threat to shipping through the Suez Canal, one of the last major export routes available to Saudi oil amid the expanding U.S.-Iran war. The strait, which usually carries about a fifth of global shipments of crude oil and liquefied natural gas, has been a focal point for oil markets as it has been largely blockaded since the February 28 launch of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1535(50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1600(psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1442(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1422(SMA 20).
GBP/USD : Sterling slipped on Friday as the dollar regained ground, with investors assessing developments in the Middle East and their potential impact on the U.S. interest rate outlook.The U.S. military said on Wednesday it had completed another wave of strikes on Iran, lasting two hours and targeting dozens of locations. Washington described the operation as a “powerful response” to Iranian missile launches against U.S. forces in the region a day earlier.The U.S. military also said it intercepted multiple ballistic missiles fired by Iran toward American forces on Tuesday, calling it an attempted surprise attack by Tehran. Iran confirmed it had launched strikes against U.S. bases in Jordan.. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3474(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3543(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3414(50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards1.3395(SMA 20).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar firmed on Friday as Japan’s move to strengthen the yen sparked a sharp decline in the dollar overnight, providing fresh support to Australian dollar .Australia's second-quarter inflation report on Wednesday further weakened the case for additional monetary tightening. The Reserve Bank of Australia's preferred trimmed mean inflation measure slowed to 3.6% year-on-year, below the central bank's 3.8% forecast issued.Investors have largely abandoned expectations of an RBA rate increase in August and September, with markets now assigning only a 50% probability of a hike by November.On the data front, Australia’s final demand Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped 1.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2026, accelerating sharply from a 0.4% rise in the previous quarter and exceeding market expectations for a 0.3% increase.On an annual basis, Australia's final demand Producer Price Index (PPI) increased 3.6% in the second quarter of 2026, up from a 3.0% rise in the previous quarter. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.6971(SMA20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.6984(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.6917 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.6899(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The U.S. dollar firmed on Friday as the yen remained under pressure after the Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged.At the two-day policy meeting that ended on Friday, the BOJ kept short-term interest rates steady at 1% in a widely expected move after a hike to the 31-year-high level just last month.The Bank of Japan signaled the possibility of further hikes, warning for the first time that underlying inflation could rise above its target.The central bank also pointed to rising inflation pressures from strong global AI-related demand and noted that concerns over the economic impact of the Middle East conflict were easing.The BOJ’s decision followed Japan’s yen-buying, dollar-selling intervention in New York markets on Thursday, though the move failed to provide a lasting boost to the yen as traders continued to test Tokyo’s commitment to supporting the currency. Immediate resistance can be seen at 160.88 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 161.85(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 159.44(Daily low) a break below could take the pair towards (61.8%fib).
Equities Recap
Asian shares rallied sharply on Friday, tracking Wall Street higher, while South Korea's stock market staged a record recovery, raising hopes the AI-driven market correction was losing momentum.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was up by 3.85% , KOSPI was up at 17.87%, China A50 was up at 0.38%
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped on Friday but remained on track for its first monthly gain in five months, supported by bargain buying near the $4,000 level as investors monitored Middle East developments and U.S. rate expectations.
Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,075.35 per ounce, as of 0703 GMT, but was headed for a weekly rise of 0.5%. Prices were up about 1.7% this month.U.S. gold futures for August delivery lost 0.6% to $4,074.
Oil prices declined on Friday but remained on track for a monthly gain of around 20%, as increased flows through key shipping routes eased supply concerns despite limited progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations.
Brent futures fell $1.44, or 1.6%, to $87.59 a barrel by 0658 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped $1.59, or 1.9%, to $82 a barrel. On a monthly basis, both benchmarks were set to rise about 20%.
