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Market Roundup
• China Unemployment Rate 5.3%, 5.2% forecast, 5.2% previous
• China Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Aug) 5.3%, 5.3% previous
•China Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) 5.2%, 4.8% forecast, 4.5% previous
• China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Aug) -7.2%, -7.1% forecast, -6.7% previous
• China Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug) 0.4%, 0.7% forecast, 0.6% previous
•Chinese Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (Aug) 1.13%, 1.23% previous
•UK Claimant Count Change (Aug) 27.8K, 8.3K forecast, -11.8K previous
•UK Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM) (Jul) 67K, 83K previous
•UK Unemployment Rate (Jul) 4.9%, 5.0% forecast, 4.9% previous
•UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Jul) 3.9%, 3.9% forecast, 4.2% previous
•UK Average Earnings ex Bonus (Jul) 3.5%, 3.5% forecast, 3.5% previous
•German WPI (YoY) (Aug) 6.8%, 5.3% previous
•German WPI (MoM) (Aug) 0.9%, 0.1% forecast, 0.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data (GMT)
•09:00 German ZEW Current Conditions (Sep) -53.0 forecast, -61.1 previous
•09:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep) 39.8 forecast, 34.2 previous
•09:00 EU Trade Balance (Jul) 3.7B forecast, 8.6B previous
•09:00 EU ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep) 39.2 forecast, 31.4 previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases (GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD : The euro dipped on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar firmed ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The U.S. central bank will announce its decision at 1800 GMT on Wednesday following the conclusion of its two-day meeting. Financial markets are heavily pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike, which would lift the benchmark rate to a 3.75%-4.00% range. Data released on Friday showed U.S. consumer prices accelerated in August, while a key measure of underlying inflation posted its largest increase in four months. On the geopolitical front, Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen launched a fresh wave of attacks on Saudi Arabia and were reinforcing positions along Yemen’s western coast near the Red Sea. Oil prices rose amid concerns over potential supply disruptions.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1603(Sep 15th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1627(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1516(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1459(July 3st low).
GBP/USD: The British pound slipped on Tuesday as dollar firmed ahead of Federal Reserve rate decision this week. The U.S. central bank will announce its policy decision at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) on Wednesday following the end of a two-day meeting. Financial markets are betting heavily that Fed policymakers will lift their benchmark rate a quarter of a percentage point, to a 3.75%-4.00% range, and signal further tightening ahead.On the data front, Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, grew by 3.5% in the three months to July compared with the same period in 2025, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday.Britain's unemployment rate which is based on a survey that is still in the process of being overhauled — held steady at 4.9% in the three months to July. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3506(Daily high ), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3543(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3454(Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards1.3424(50%fib).
AUD/USD: The Australian dollar dipped on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar was supported by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this week. The Fed is widely expected to increase its benchmark interest rate by at least 25 basis points, a sharp shift from just a week ago, when markets saw roughly even odds of a hike or a pause. Oil supply concerns intensified as the Middle East conflict continued to disrupt energy markets, with no clear end to hostilities in sight. Meanwhile, RBA officials, including Governor Michele Bullock, are scheduled to appear before a parliamentary committee on Friday, with markets looking for clues on the central bank’s policy outlook. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.7166(SAM20), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.7238(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.7114 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 07094(Lower BB)
USD /JPY : The U.S. dollar strengthened on Tuesday ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve and BOJ policy decisions. Renewed energy-driven inflation pressures, following a stronger-than-expected jobs report and a pickup in August consumer prices, have reinforced expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates on Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Reuters also expect at least one further rate hike by the end of March, reversing the fragile consensus for no change that prevailed before Friday’s official data showed inflation remained firm. Meanwhile, the BOJ is widely expected to raise its policy rate to 1.25% on Friday, its highest level since April 1995, as the central bank responds to persistent upward inflationary pressures. Immediate resistance can be seen at 155.75(38.2%), an upside break can trigger rise towards 157.28(SMA20).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 154.95(Sep 24th low ) a break below could take the pair towards 154.00 (Psychological level).
Equities Recap
Asian shares traded mixed early Tuesday after artificial intelligence stocks declined overnight.
China A50 was down by 1.06% , South Korea’s KOSPI was down at 0.85%, Nikkei was down at 0.1%
Commodities Recap
Gold was little changed on Tuesday as investors geared up for the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision for clues on the future path of monetary policy.
Spot gold was trading at $4,287.13 per ounce, as of 0510 GMT, after hitting its lowest point since August 7 on Monday.
Oil prices rose nearly 2% on Tuesday as concerns over supply disruptions persisted after attacks on Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure shut the kingdom’s East-West pipeline and raised doubts over efforts to ease shipping risks in the Gulf.
Brent crude futures rose $1.87, or 1.77%, to $107.55 a barrel at 0633 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up $1.88, or 1.85%, at $103.27 a barrel. Both benchmarks rose more than 1% in the previous session
