Asian export growth to see modest export recovery in 2015
The inventory cycle is one of the best lead indicators for Asian exports, and it is correlated with foreign exchange and equity markets. Latest development in inventory position calls for more patience, in the speed of e…
The inventory cycle is one of the best lead indicators for Asian exports, and it is correlated with foreign exchange and equity markets.
Latest development in inventory position calls for more patience, in the speed of exports growth.
BofA Merrill Lynch notes in a report on Monday:
Asian export growth has been sluggish in the past few years, and predicated on stronger US and EU GDP, we pencil in modest export recovery in 2015.
We would expect signs of this to first appear in the inventory data. The latest development in inventory position calls for more patience on the speed of export growth.
Our aggregate S-I ratio also points to potentially weaker EM Asia exports growth in 1Q15, despite signs of improvement in real exports for a few export-oriented economies within Asia.
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