The Australian dollar surged to a 15-month high on Thursday, supported by improving global risk sentiment and a surprisingly strong domestic employment report that reshaped expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate policy. The Aussie climbed 0.4% to trade near $0.6791, breaking above key technical resistance at $0.6766 and opening the path toward higher targets around $0.6824 and the 2024 peak of $0.6943.
Investor confidence improved after signs of easing tensions between the United States and Europe. Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump indicating he would not pursue new tariffs on European countries and would refrain from using force to take Greenland helped lift global markets and risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar.
Domestic factors played an even larger role in the rally. Australia’s employment rose sharply by 65,200 jobs in December, more than double market expectations of a 30,000 increase and a strong rebound from the previous month’s decline. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, its lowest level in seven months and well below the RBA’s forecast of 4.4%. These figures suggest the Australian economy is gaining momentum faster than policymakers had anticipated, supported by improving consumer spending and tight labor market conditions.
As a result, markets rapidly increased the probability of an RBA rate hike. Expectations for a 25-basis-point increase in the cash rate at the February 3 meeting jumped to 54% from 27% prior to the data, with a hike now fully priced in by May. Three-year Australian bond futures fell to their lowest levels since late 2023, reflecting shifting interest rate outlooks.
Attention now turns to upcoming inflation data for the December quarter. A rise in core inflation of 0.9% or more would further strengthen the case for near-term monetary tightening. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar also reached multi-month highs against the yen and the euro, while the New Zealand dollar firmed on broader optimism, highlighting renewed strength across Antipodean currencies.


U.S. Stocks Slip as Gold Rebounds Ahead of Year-End, Markets Eye 2026 Outlook
South Korea Inflation Rises to 2.3% in December, Matching Market Expectations
Oil Prices Stabilize at Start of 2026 as OPEC+ Policy and Geopolitical Risks Shape Market Outlook
Wall Street Ends Mixed as Tech and Financial Stocks Weigh on Markets Amid Thin Holiday Trading
South Korean Won Slides Despite Government Efforts to Stabilize Currency Markets
Singapore GDP Growth Surges in 2025 but Outlook Remains Cautious Amid Global Trade Risks
Asian Markets End Year on AI Optimism as Precious Metals and Currencies Shine
Japanese Business Leaders Urge Government Action as Weak Yen Strains Economy
China Manufacturing PMI Rebounds in December, Offering Boost to Economic Growth Outlook
Oil Prices Slide in 2025 as Oversupply and Geopolitical Risks Shape Market Outlook
Forex Markets Hold Steady as Traders Await Fed Minutes Amid Thin Year-End Volumes
China Imposes 55% Tariff on Beef Imports Above Quota to Protect Domestic Industry
U.S. Stock Futures Slip as Year-End Trading Turns Cautious
Trump Delays Tariff Increases on Furniture and Cabinets for One More Year
South Korea Exports Hit Record High as Global Trade Momentum Builds 



