Australia Consumer Sentiment Rises in July as Fuel Price Relief Lifts Confidence 
Asian Currencies Stay Rangebound as Middle East Tensions, Weak China GDP Weigh on Sentiment 
Dollar Holds Steady Ahead of U.S. CPI as Oil Surge, Middle East Tensions Keep Markets on Edge 
Japanese Yen Holds Steady as Intervention Hopes Grow Ahead of U.S. CPI Data 
Gold Price Holds Near $4,000 as Middle East Tensions and Fed Rate Hike Bets Grow 
Gold Price Holds Near Record High as Cooling U.S. Inflation Offsets Fed Caution 
US Inflation Expected to Ease in June, but Fed Rate Hike Risks Persist Amid Middle East Tensions 
China Trade Surplus Hits $125.6 Billion as June Exports, Imports Smash Forecasts 
Australian Business Conditions Hold Steady as Easing Cost Pressures Face New Oil Price Risks 
Asian Currencies Hold Steady as Middle East Tensions Offset Weaker US Dollar 
ECB's Kocher Says No Inflation Spillover Yet From Iran Conflict, Warns Risks Remain 
US Stock Futures Hold Steady as Soft Inflation Data Eases Fed Rate Hike Fears 
South Korea’s KOSPI Enters Bear Market Despite Remaining 2026’s Best-Performing Major Stock Index 
Dollar Slides as Softer US Inflation Dims Fed Rate Hike Expectations 
China Q2 2026 GDP Misses Forecast as Weak Domestic Demand Offsets Export Strength 
Asian Stocks Rise as Softer U.S. Inflation Boosts Sentiment Despite Middle East Tensions 
Goldman Sees Foreign Investors Driving India Stock Market Recovery 
The Australian dollar surged to a 15-month high on Thursday, supported by improving global risk sentiment and a surprisingly strong domestic employment report that reshaped expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate policy. The Aussie climbed 0.4% to trade near $0.6791, breaking above key technical resistance at $0.6766 and opening the path toward higher targets around $0.6824 and the 2024 peak of $0.6943.
Investor confidence improved after signs of easing tensions between the United States and Europe. Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump indicating he would not pursue new tariffs on European countries and would refrain from using force to take Greenland helped lift global markets and risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar.
Domestic factors played an even larger role in the rally. Australia’s employment rose sharply by 65,200 jobs in December, more than double market expectations of a 30,000 increase and a strong rebound from the previous month’s decline. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, its lowest level in seven months and well below the RBA’s forecast of 4.4%. These figures suggest the Australian economy is gaining momentum faster than policymakers had anticipated, supported by improving consumer spending and tight labor market conditions.
As a result, markets rapidly increased the probability of an RBA rate hike. Expectations for a 25-basis-point increase in the cash rate at the February 3 meeting jumped to 54% from 27% prior to the data, with a hike now fully priced in by May. Three-year Australian bond futures fell to their lowest levels since late 2023, reflecting shifting interest rate outlooks.
Attention now turns to upcoming inflation data for the December quarter. A rise in core inflation of 0.9% or more would further strengthen the case for near-term monetary tightening. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar also reached multi-month highs against the yen and the euro, while the New Zealand dollar firmed on broader optimism, highlighting renewed strength across Antipodean currencies.
