Europe EV Demand Surges as Fuel Prices Rise Amid Iran Conflict 
Dollar Hits One-Month High as Hawkish Fed Outlook Boosts Greenback 
Trump Says No Hormuz Strait Tolls During 60-Day Iran Ceasefire 
Oil Prices Steady as U.S.-Iran Truce Uncertainty and Middle East Tensions Keep Markets on Edge 
US Stock Futures Slip After Wall Street Rally Fueled by US-Iran Deal and Chipmaker Surge 
Australia Eases Capital Gains Tax Reforms to Support Small Businesses and Startups 
Asian Currencies Stabilize as Dollar Holds Near Two-Month High After Fed Hawkish Signal 
Gold Prices Slide as Hawkish Fed and Strong Dollar Weigh on Bullion 
BOJ Signals More Rate Hikes as Inflation Risks Rise Amid Energy Price Pressures 
Gold Prices Rebound on U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Optimism Despite Fed Rate Hike Signals 
German Industry Employment Falls to Lowest Level in a Decade 
Trump and Iran Sign Framework Peace Deal in France Amid Ongoing Middle East Tensions 
German Auto Suppliers Turn Bearish as Investment and Jobs Shift Overseas 
US Stock Futures Jump on Reports of Preliminary US-Iran Peace Deal Despite Fed’s Hawkish Outlook 
China’s AI Manufacturing Boom Masks Weak Consumer Economy, Citi Says 
Canada Imposes 10% Tariff on Canned Vegetable Imports to Protect Domestic Industry 
Oil Prices Slide as U.S.-Iran Deal and Hormuz Reopening Ease Supply Concerns 
The Australian dollar surged to a 15-month high on Thursday, supported by improving global risk sentiment and a surprisingly strong domestic employment report that reshaped expectations for Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate policy. The Aussie climbed 0.4% to trade near $0.6791, breaking above key technical resistance at $0.6766 and opening the path toward higher targets around $0.6824 and the 2024 peak of $0.6943.
Investor confidence improved after signs of easing tensions between the United States and Europe. Comments from U.S. President Donald Trump indicating he would not pursue new tariffs on European countries and would refrain from using force to take Greenland helped lift global markets and risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar.
Domestic factors played an even larger role in the rally. Australia’s employment rose sharply by 65,200 jobs in December, more than double market expectations of a 30,000 increase and a strong rebound from the previous month’s decline. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, its lowest level in seven months and well below the RBA’s forecast of 4.4%. These figures suggest the Australian economy is gaining momentum faster than policymakers had anticipated, supported by improving consumer spending and tight labor market conditions.
As a result, markets rapidly increased the probability of an RBA rate hike. Expectations for a 25-basis-point increase in the cash rate at the February 3 meeting jumped to 54% from 27% prior to the data, with a hike now fully priced in by May. Three-year Australian bond futures fell to their lowest levels since late 2023, reflecting shifting interest rate outlooks.
Attention now turns to upcoming inflation data for the December quarter. A rise in core inflation of 0.9% or more would further strengthen the case for near-term monetary tightening. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar also reached multi-month highs against the yen and the euro, while the New Zealand dollar firmed on broader optimism, highlighting renewed strength across Antipodean currencies.
