Australia’s housing finance commitments recover in June, stabilization likely to continue

Australia’s housing finance commitments ticked up by 1.9 percent in June, recovering from a weak May (‑2.7 percent m/m). Owner-occupied housing finance demand drove most of the growth, up 2.4 percent, the second highest m/m result since 2017. Investor demand (ex-refinancing) ticked up after 10 consecutive monthly declines, according to the latest report from ANZ Research.

The better housing finance has occurred at the same time as housing prices started to stabilise (late May/early June) and reflects a shift in sentiment after the May election result, the first RBA cut and discussions between APRA and banks on credit regulations.

The value of housing finance rose 1.9 percent m/m in June after a sharp drop in May (-2.7 percent), reversing much of the losses from May. Annual growth was -17.6 percent y/y, similar to March/April results.

Owner-occupier finance increased sharply by 2.4 percent m/m, leading to a year-on-year contraction of 14.8 percent. This is in line with the average for the first few months of the year, excepting the drop in May.

The dramatic shift in housing sentiment since May could lead to further lifts in credit growth in the next few months.

Investor demand ex refinancing ticked up 0.5 percent, the first positive result since July 2018. Total investor demand was also up for the first time in seven months. While investor demand (ex re-financing) is still considerably lower than last year (-24.7 percent), this is the smallest year-on-year decline since October 2018.

"The reversion also represents a hangover effect from the string of April holidays and the May election, which may have delayed housing purchases. We expect continuing stabilisation in the next rounds of data," the report further commented.