Recoil after a strong employment data in Q4 2015 mainly drove the employment data for the first quarter of 2016. In the last quarter of 2014 employment increased at an average of 41k or at an annualized rate of 4.2%. However, the Q4’s data was quite impossible to sustain.
The recoil was relatively mild. The monthly growth in employment continued to be at an average of 6K in the first quarter of 2016. This permitted the growth in employment to remain solid at 2.2% y/y, as compared with Q4’s 2.7%. The first quarter’s growth continues to be more than the demographic growth rate in the labor force, noted Societe Generale in a research report.
“We expect job creation in April to have settled back to a more moderate pace of perhaps 12k, equivalent to 1.2% at an annualised rate and resulting in a 2.3% yoy rate”, added Societe Generale.
The projection will be in line with the strong labor market. A more balanced growth between part-time and full-time employment is likely. Rises recorded in March was mostly due to part-timers. The jobless rate in April is expected to rise to 5.8% if the participation rate continues to be little changed, said Societe Generale.
