It seems like what Germany couldn't conquer in two world wars with relatively peaceful means, now using their banks instead of tanks. The merits of banks are quite clear, the buildings are left standing while the public remains blind to the outrageous imposition of German "values" and culture on the rest of Europe. So, Greeks envisage what Germany can't do with tanks are now doing with banks.
So, is the ball back in Germany's court now that the IMF threatens to walk away from the bailout agreement without debt relief for Greece? Will the Bundestag still approve the deal in Friday's scheduled vote? Grexit risk has not been averted, stay defensive on the euro.
Germany has been "bailing Greece out" for its own purposes, and their motive is as pure as that of a PayDay Loan company. The loans to Greece are mostly to protect German investors. They go not for lavish social programs but to pay off interest on previous loans. Many of those previous loans were in the form of Greek treasury bonds, bonds bought by German people and institutions. Germany is tired of bailing out the lazy Greeks; and it's time to impose discipline, which is definitely a German characteristic.
Conversely, Grexit is not off the table until the third bailout is set in stone. A re-opening of the banks depends on the approval of the legislation and a subsequent increase by the ECB of the ELA ceiling for the Greek banks, but capital controls are unlikely to be lifted for a while yet (higher EUR/JPY, bear steepening in rates and swaps).
EUR/USD remained overnight range of 1.0987 - 1.1017 on the defensive as the IMF threatens to walk away from a debt deal, will Germany vote in favour on Friday? Greek vote in focus today and Fed's Yellen's remarks on rates. Support 1.0965, res 1.1083. IMF signals it may walk away from bailout deal, says it will not be able to participate if European creditors do not offer Athens substantial debt relief; this could be a roadblock for German parliamentary approval.
