Quotes from TD Economics:
- There are two main themes in Canadian inflation at present. First, headline consumer prices are expected to decline outright in the second quarter of this year, due in large part to the drop in energy prices.
- In contrast, core inflation, BoC's operational guide, is expect to remain near the 2% target through the forecast horizon, helped in part by the low level of the Canadian dollar. Core inflation appears unlikely to deviate meaningfully from the BoC's inflation target, which, combined with the additional (if modest) stimulus provided by the Jan cut, removes some of the impetus for an additional rate cut.
- In addition, oil prices have stabilized somewhat, and are expected to gradually recover over the next few years. As a result, we expect that the Bank of Canada will remain on hold until late next year, at which point it will begin to increase the policy rate.
