The April MPC meeting delivered the expected result of no change in policy. In the March meeting, the minutes reported that yet again, "two members regarded this month's decision as finely balanced."
In the period between the March and April meetings, CPI inflation surprised the market with a dip from 0.3% yoy to 0.0%. However, the Governor, in his opening remarks to the February Inflation Report has said that "Inflation is at its lowest level [at that time 0.5% yoy] since the introduction of Inflation Targeting two decades ago. It will likely fall further, potentially turn negative in the spring, and be close to zero for the remainder of the year."
So the Bank should not have been greatly surprised and member's views should not have changed materially as a result of that outcome. That said, Martin Weale (one of the two members referred to in the first quote above), in his most recent speech had said that "a rising exchange rate might be the next of these [price] shocks."
Therefore there is a minor risk that this confirmation of the continuing downtrend in inflation leads him to return to the majority view of the committee.
"Overall, though, his policy vote will have remained "finely balanced", says Societe Generale.
