Below normal Indian monsoon

In early June, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) had projected monsoon season (June-September) rains in India to be below normal, at 88% of the country's long period average (LPA). 

Against that, the cumulative rainfall to date, half-way into the monsoon season, stands normal at 96% of the LPA. The geographical distribution of rainfall has so far been a mixed bag, of the 36 meteorological sub-divisions in the country, the IMD suggests that 17 have received normal rains, six have received excess, while the remaining 13 have witnessed deficient rains so far. 

"Thus, admittedly, while the geographical distribution of rainfall has not been ideal, the overall monsoon picture appears considerably better than was suggested by the IMD in early June. Nevertheless, clarity on the monsoon front ahead of the August meeting is only partial, but it will be considerably clearer by the RBI's next monetary policy meeting, scheduled on 29 September", says Barclays.