Bitwise Asset Management’s long-range scenario says Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $1.6 million by 2036, pairing that conditional endpoint with assumptions about returns, volatility and portfolio exposure.
The scenario puts annualized growth at 34.3%. It projects average volatility of 27.8% and an average correlation of 0.43 with U.S. stocks over the period. Its institutional portfolio examples allocate between 1% and 5% to Bitcoin.
For relative performance, Bitwise’s case ranks Bitcoin ahead of other major assets commonly held by institutions during the projection period. It also expects peak-to-trough losses to become smaller as the scenario advances.
The risks it identifies include quantum computing, mathematical advances associated with AI and a regulatory reversal.